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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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316 FXUS64 KSHV 071612 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1112 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 No wholesale changes are needed to the forecast package at this time. Temperatures look on track reach the low to middle 90s before cloud cover builds in from the south and northwest. Storms in Oklahoma at this hour are expected to dissipate as they near our CWA. A band of light rainfall has begun to swing into our Louisiana parishes, from the south with more rainfall expected to follow, as showers and storms build north and west into this afternoon. Actively contemplating the products which will be necessary to account for the impacts of Beryl to the ArkLaTex, the first of which should be issued together with our afternoon forecast package in a few hours... stay tuned. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Instability will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front to the north and tropical cyclone Beryl that is advancing northwest across the Gulf of Mexico. An upper-level trough across the Southern Plains will allow for sufficient mixing to limit high temperatures into the low to mid 90s. Could see an enhanced sea- breeze boundary lifting north this afternoon which could allow for scattered convection mainly across east and northeast Texas as well as north Louisiana. Beryl to make landfall overnight tonight across the mid to upper Texas coast. The combination of the approaching tropical cyclone interacting with the upper-trough and surface boundary will drive rain chances to likely and near categorical levels across the ArkLaTex Sunday night into Monday. Increased shear along the eastern edge of the cyclone as it moves north across east and northeast Texas will allow for an increased tornado threat across much of the ArkLaTex on Monday. Additionally, heavy rainfall with totals from 2 to 4 inches may be possible across mainly east and northeast Texas as well as southeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of the center of circulation with lesser values elsewhere. Otherwise, with increased cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will be much cooler with highs on Monday in the low to mid 80s along the path of Beryl. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A stagnant broad upper-level trough will remain anchored across the mid-conus through much of the work-week. A weak lingering surface boundary in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex will support widely-scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region each day. Additionally, a cooler and drier airmass north of the frontal boundary will allow for slightly cooler temperatures with highs through much of the work- week in the mid to upper 80s, gradually increasing into the lower 90s by Friday as upper-level ridging rebuilds across the southern CONUS. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions expected during the weekend with highs creeping into the mid to upper 90s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Tropical cyclone Beryl will allow for increased rain chances across area terminal this afternoon. Expect VCTS conditions across most terminals around 07/18Z, continuing through 08/02Z. Conditions forecast to improve thereafter with ceilings becoming MVFR across LFK by 08/12Z. Otherwise, southeast winds 5 to 10 knots today to become 5 knots overnight. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 79 90 75 86 / 20 70 70 70 MLU 75 92 74 89 / 20 40 50 70 DEQ 71 86 68 80 / 50 70 60 70 TXK 75 90 71 84 / 50 60 70 70 ELD 74 89 70 83 / 30 60 60 70 TYR 76 87 71 84 / 20 80 70 60 GGG 76 87 72 85 / 20 80 70 60 LFK 76 85 72 86 / 30 80 70 60 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...05