578
FXUS64 KSHV 031800 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

No major wholesale updates are required to the forecast package at
this time. Based on aggressive warming trends this morning, nudged
a few sites up by 1 degree for afternoon highs, but stubborn
surface level moisture should prevent runaway heating into the
afternoon. Still looking for highs near the century mark across
much of the region this afternoon, with heat indices between 105
and 115 degrees. Model guidance shows little to no convection
this afternoon, as the apex of the ridging fixes itself over the
ArkLaTex. Ingested the most recent several hours of temperature
and dew point obs and interpolated through 00Z.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the 03/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field has developed early this afternoon across N
LA/Srn AR/Deep E and extreme Ern TX, and will continue farther W
through the afternoon, before diminishing by early to mid evening.
Isolated to widely scattered convection will be possible this
afternoon over portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, but confidence
remains too low to include VCTS mention for the terminals in these
areas. Any convection that does develop should diminish by early
to mid evening, although some cirrus will linger through the
overnight hours over portions of E TX/N LA. Some areas of stratocu
are expected to develop by/shortly after daybreak Thursday over
portions of Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, with a scattered cu field
developing by late morning/early afternoon. Any convection
Thursday afternoon will be isolated, mainly over Deep E TX/N LA.
SSW winds 5-8kts this afternoon will diminish to 5kts or less
after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102  82  99  81 /  10   0  10  10
MLU  99  78  97  79 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  98  77  97  74 /  10   0  10  30
TXK 101  80  99  78 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  99  78  97  76 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  99  80  99  78 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  99  79  98  78 /  10  10   0  10
LFK  98  77  97  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ097-112-
     126-138-150>153-165>167.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-108>111-124-125-
     136-137-149.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
AVIATION...15