526
FXUS64 KSHV 160659
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
159 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The afternoon forecast package remains on track as of the 03Z
hour this evening. Skies should remain mostly clear for the
majority of the ArkLaTex, allowing low temperatures to drop well
into the mid to upper 70s by daybreak. A few areas of fog are
possible in sheltered zones towards dawn, particularly around the
Toledo Bend country. Ingested the afternoon and evening
temperatures and dew point obs and interpolated through to 12Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Hazardous heat will continue across the Four State Region through
the next 36 hours with little in the way of relief expected from
any precipitation that may form. This is due to surface ridging
that will linger across the southeast US and the Mississippi River
into Texas, maintaining light southerly winds and dew points in
the low-to-mid 70s. Temperature maximums will remain in the upper
90s while minimums remain in the mid-to-upper 70s, not much of a
reprieve from daytime heat.

Heat hazard products are likely to be issued through the middle of
this week across the area. Adequate precautions and awareness are
encouraged now against the elevated potential for heat illnesses.
This includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans,
taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the
backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of
heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Cooler weather will begin to arrive later this week as a less
common summer cold front makes its way into the area. This is due
to a fairly robust surface ridge that will make its way south
from Canada into the Great Plains/Midwest, allowing somewhat more
active northerly flow aloft (and difluent flow near the Gulf) to
instigate more convection along the frontal boundary as it
eventually stalls near the Gulf Coast. By this weekend, the
convection will become more diurnally driven, producing 1 to 1.5
inches of rainfall in the next week. Overall, this activity will
keep temperature maximums/minimums in the lower 90s/lower 70s,
slightly (and fortunately) below average for this time of the
year. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For the 16/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to largely
prevail outside of some patchy low stratus possibly affecting LFK
around daybreak. Otherwise, look for a cu field to develop around
4Kft once again today before diminishing after sunset. Light S/SW
winds will prevail between 5-10 kts on average, decreasing during
the evening and overnight hours.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  78  98  76 /   0   0  10  30
MLU  98  77  98  75 /  10   0  20  30
DEQ  98  74  95  70 /   0   0  20  50
TXK  99  78  98  73 /   0   0  20  40
ELD  98  76  98  71 /   0   0  20  40
TYR  97  77  97  75 /   0   0  10  20
GGG  95  75  95  73 /   0   0  10  20
LFK  95  74  95  75 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...19