720
FXUS64 KSHV 161815
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
115 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Just a little warmer this morning with more lower 80s at Tyler,
Henderson and Shreveport Regional, and once again Downtown has
honors at 83 last hour. There are a handful of 75 degree readings
for the lower bound of this muggy air. Southerly winds around 5
to 10 mph now are mixing well and our skies clear to mostly clear
which means a quick warm up from here with the mid July sunshine.

We will continue with the Heat Advisory criteria during the
afternoon close to area wide. Yesterday deep east TX mixed down a
little and kept the heat a little more bearable. This could
repeat today, but for tomorrow our dew points may pool a bit
higher, so one last advisory will finish off this month. Highs
today still mid to upper 90s and then for Wednesday some low to
mid 90s with higher RH feels quite similar. However, the cool
front continues to pace quicker with some convection in our I-30
corridor possible late tomorrow.

/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The SPC remains focused northward with the upper low storm tracking
and keeping the southern plains under a General Risk for all 3
days. The convection will bring clouds and cooler temps to round
out this week and weekend as the rain chances spring back over our
area. The WPC day 3 ERO is now Slight across our northern fringe
with some 2 inch amounts possible and then continue Marginal for
days 4 and 5 through and edging out to the south. Looks like
similar amounts expected this weekend will remain beneficial and
not bring much of a threat as we continue to dry out for two more
days.

Midweek will see that 1024mb air mass a little deeper across
the plains, ridging down across the upper and middle MS River
Valley. As is usually the case, nothing like some good ole
convection to assist a frontal push and wind shift, especially
once the sun sets. We could see some N/NE winds prevailing
overnight Wednesday with Thursday still looking to be a good rainy
day for many locales with northerly surface winds under SW flow.
The expectation remains for a good well round inch for most of our
area to end the work week. The midWest air mass builds to 1025mb
with reinforcements and then a weak inverted trough will orient
heavier rains from the TX coastal bend, across southern and
central LA and into MS. So maybe our drier day in the mix there on
Friday. Because the weekend, will see a weak convergence of
higher totals perhaps looming on the days 6 and 7 QPF padding our
wet July totals as another H500 weakness drops across NB and OK.

/24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

For the 16/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail this
afternoon with a CU field to develop around 4Kft and S/SW winds
around 10 kts. Clouds should diminish after sunset with decreasing
winds to near 5 kts during the evening and overnight hours.
Expect some low cigs to develop near KLFK around sunrise tomorrow,
along with some mid and high clouds moving into most of the sites
shortly afterwards. There may also be some showers at KTXK by the
end of the TAF period, with more sct CU developing.

/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  78  96  76 /   0   0  20  40
MLU  97  76  96  75 /   0   0  20  40
DEQ  98  74  94  70 /   0   0  30  60
TXK  97  77  95  73 /   0   0  20  50
ELD  97  76  94  71 /   0   0  20  50
TYR  97  77  96  75 /   0   0  20  30
GGG  96  76  95  74 /   0   0  20  30
LFK  96  75  96  75 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20