Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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063 FXUS63 KSGF 131904 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 204 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory Sunday through Monday. Heat index values will range from near 100 to 108 degrees each afternoon. - Cold front will bring 50-60% chances for showers and thunderstorm late Tuesday through Wednesday. - Below normal temperatures Wednesday into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis showed the area on the east/northeast periphery of an upper level high that was centered across the Rockies. This placement has allowed for disturbances and nocturnal low level jets to provide precip chances during the last few mornings. Current precip was winding down however plenty of cloud debris remains with temps held back in the 70s across central Missouri to the lower 80s further southwest towards Joplin, Branson and West Plains. Rest of Today and Tonight: Back edge of clouds will continue moving southeast with a late afternoon temperature surge where sun can prevail. Areas east of Springfield will likely struggle to climb too far into the 80s with areas west of Springfield pushing the upper 80s. Dewpoints will continue to be in the lower 70s creating a muggy afternoon. A warm night is expected with areas remaining in the lower to middle 70s. The upper ridge will begin to nudge east tonight with the low level jet setting up much further north towards Iowa. Therefore any overnight showers and storms should remain farther north however did include some 5-10% chances across our far northwest CWA towards sunrise incase a stray shower can move down. Sunday: A hot and sunny day looks likely as 850mb temps of 21-23C move into the area from the southwest. NBM guidance and local 850mb temp climo studies suggest high potential for temps to reach the middle to upper 90s in most locations. These temps combined with dews in the upper 60s to lower 70s will create heat index values between 100-105 degrees with a few locations in the 106-108 heat index range. Recent rains will likely keep temps from reaching even higher than forecast however this will keep dews higher which leads to high confidence in the first day of excessive heat. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire are for tomorrow. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Monday: Another day of excessive heat is likely with perhaps a 1-2 degree increase in 850mb temps across the area (23-25C). This will push high temps into the upper 90s across the western half of the area with perhaps a 100 degree temp across southeast Kansas. Locations across the eastern ozarks will remain in the lower 90s. This will send heat index values again in the 100-105 degree range with a few areas in the 106-108 range. The Heat Index will continue through Monday for the entire area. Tuesday into Wednesday: The upper level ridge will begin its suppression to the south as a strong shortwave moves across the northern plains. A cold front will be in the process of dropping south during the day and the timing of this will be critical in determining if another day of excessive heat occurs. If the front is slow to move down then another day of excessive heat will occur and the Heat Advisory would need extended for all or portions of the area. The most likely scenario per the ensembles at this time is that the front arrives later in the evening with shower and thunderstorm chances during the evening and overnight hours. These types of fronts can be difficult to get too far south therefore it may stall over the area during the day Wednesday. Precip chances have increased into the 50-60 percent chance during this time and may need increased in future updates. This could keep highs in the middle 80s on Wednesday with clouds/precip. Thursday through Friday: Confidence is high that much cooler temperatures will arrive underneath northwest flow late next week as 850mb temps drop back into the 10-15C range. This will lead to highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. Rain chances look to remain less than 20 percent. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Rain chances will continue to diminish through the rest of the day with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will begin to turn more south to southwesterly through the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield