Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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636 FXUS63 KSGF 141107 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 607 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory today through Monday. Heat index values will range from near 100 to 108 degrees each afternoon. - Cold front will bring 50-60% chances for showers and thunderstorm late Tuesday through Wednesday. - Below average temperatures Wednesday into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An upper level ridge was making slow progress east over the Ozarks region this morning and will continue its slow trek east through today. Southerly surface flow will continue to bring a warm and moist air mass into the region. This combination along with mostly sunny skies and wet ground from recent rains will produce afternoon highs in the middle to upper 90s with heat index values from 100 to 106. This prompted the issuance of a Heat Advisory for all of the Ozarks today. Expect little in the way of overnight relief at temperatures linger in the middle to upper 70s The upper ridge will begin to flatten slightly into Monday as a result of energy moving southward from an upper low over central Canada. This will have little effect however on the regions heat. Temperatures at 850mb across the area will be in the 23-25C range, slightly higher than todays, 21-23C allowing afternoon highs to climb into the middle 90s (eastern Ozarks) to around 100 degrees (the Joplin area). With continued precipitable water values in the 2 inch range, and surface Td`s around 70 degrees, heat index values will reach the 100 to 110 range. Thus the Heat Advisory will continue through Monday for the entire area. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Monday night will be another warm one. Lows in the low to middle 70 (eastern Ozarks) to around 80 degrees (west of Highway 65) will give little relief once again. The upper ridge will remain in control of the areas weather though a front will begin to make its way across the plains and may move into the region Tuesday evening. The front currently looks to begin moving into the region after the maximum heating of the day which may cause the need to extend the Heat Advisory into Tuesday with current Heat Indicies in the 100 to 108 range Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday evening into Wednesday will see a pattern shift and the next potential chance for showers and storms for the Ozarks. There is differences in the synoptic models in how far south the front makes it and where it may stall over the area during the day Wednesday. With the potential for a stalled boundary across the region along with some jet interaction and ample low level moisture rain chances in the 50-60 percent range are forecast. Expectations from the NBM guidance would support a good (60-80% chance of at least some (~0.10") rain with around 20-30% chance for and inch or more of rain). However, if the frontal boundary stalls across the region, storms would likely train across the region and provide the potential for higher rainfall amounts and the chance for flooding. Will monitor later runs this week on flood potential from Tuesday night through Wednesday. Along with the rain chances on Wednesday, the stalled front will produce ample cloud cover. This will help keep temperatures in check with highs in the 80s. Heading into the later half of the week, a pattern shift to northwesterly flow aloft and a much cooler airmass filtering into the region will bring welcome relief from the highs of the start of this week. The expectations are for highs around 80 degrees with some lower 80s. This is 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year. Average highs for the third week of July are around 90 degrees. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Flight conditions across the region through Monday morning are expected to be VFR with occasionally gusty surface winds from the south. A band of showers across northern Missouri and eastern Kansas will move south this morning but are not anticipated to reach the regions terminals. This will be monitored and updated will be issued as needed. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Hatch