105
FXUS63 KSGF 112357
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
657 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Higher rain chances (70-85%) late tonight through Monday
  morning. 1-3 inches of rain southwest of an Osceola to
  Marshfield to Ava line. Slight risk for excessive rainfall
  which may lead to localized flash flooding.

- Much warmer temperatures by mid week with heat indices
  reaching 100-108 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday. Warmest
  temperatures west of Springfield.

- Several additional rain chances this week. Highest rain
  chances shift northeast of Springfield by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis continue to show an upper level low pressure
system over southern Ontario and Quebec.  A west-northwesterly flow
aloft was south of this low from Washington State and into the
central U.S. Several waves of energy were embedded within this upper
level flow.  A decaying thunderstorm complex was remaining south of
the MO/AR border after dropping quite a few inches of rainfall over
Oklahoma overnight.  At the surface, the center of high pressure has
shifted east of the area and we`ve been getting a southerly wind
across the area on the back of the high.  Extensive cloud cover was
limiting the temperature rise with midday readings in the mid to
upper 70s.  Dew points were in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Rest of the afternoon through Monday: A few scattered showers will
remain possible this afternoon, but the showers associated with the
decaying MCS south of the MO/AR border should remain south of the
area.  Heading into the evening, a low level jet will start to
redevelop by the late evening while moisture will continue to
increase over the forecast area.  PW values should increase into the
1.8 to 2.1" range tonight into early Monday.  The low level jet will
combine with the increased moisture and upper level energy and we
should see an area of showers and thunderstorms develop and push
across the forecast area generally after 11 pm.  Some training of
storms from northwest to southeast may cause some localized
flooding.  The thunderstorm complex will likely continue into Monday
morning before decaying in the mid to late morning. HREF signals
show that the heaviest rain potential has shifted a bit southwest
from previous model runs and was now mainly southwest of an Osceola
to Marshfield to Ava line where 1-3 inches of rain will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Another shortwave will move into the area late Monday night into
Tuesday as another thunderstorm complex pushes into the area.  This
one looks to be further north within the CWA than tonight`s complex.

A warm front will then lift into the area with upper level ridging
developing over the area by the middle of the week.  Southwest of
the warm front,  temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will be
possible Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values climbing into
the 100 to 108 degree range.  The biggest question will be where the
front moves to and this will also have implications on the heaviest
rain areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Most of the QPF
will be in the northeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the CWA or northeast of the
warm front.  Additional heavy rain and the potential for flooding
will need to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles.

As we get into the later part of the week, models begin to diverge
on strength and depth of upper trough as it pushes across the MS
valley.  Confidence is much lower for precipitation chances as we
get into the later part of the week and next weekend.  Temperatures
look to be closer to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
tonight into Monday. Expect changes with TAF updates as
precipitation develops and confidence improves.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Titus