![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
105 FXUS63 KSGF 112357 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 657 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Higher rain chances (70-85%) late tonight through Monday morning. 1-3 inches of rain southwest of an Osceola to Marshfield to Ava line. Slight risk for excessive rainfall which may lead to localized flash flooding. - Much warmer temperatures by mid week with heat indices reaching 100-108 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday. Warmest temperatures west of Springfield. - Several additional rain chances this week. Highest rain chances shift northeast of Springfield by Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis continue to show an upper level low pressure system over southern Ontario and Quebec. A west-northwesterly flow aloft was south of this low from Washington State and into the central U.S. Several waves of energy were embedded within this upper level flow. A decaying thunderstorm complex was remaining south of the MO/AR border after dropping quite a few inches of rainfall over Oklahoma overnight. At the surface, the center of high pressure has shifted east of the area and we`ve been getting a southerly wind across the area on the back of the high. Extensive cloud cover was limiting the temperature rise with midday readings in the mid to upper 70s. Dew points were in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Rest of the afternoon through Monday: A few scattered showers will remain possible this afternoon, but the showers associated with the decaying MCS south of the MO/AR border should remain south of the area. Heading into the evening, a low level jet will start to redevelop by the late evening while moisture will continue to increase over the forecast area. PW values should increase into the 1.8 to 2.1" range tonight into early Monday. The low level jet will combine with the increased moisture and upper level energy and we should see an area of showers and thunderstorms develop and push across the forecast area generally after 11 pm. Some training of storms from northwest to southeast may cause some localized flooding. The thunderstorm complex will likely continue into Monday morning before decaying in the mid to late morning. HREF signals show that the heaviest rain potential has shifted a bit southwest from previous model runs and was now mainly southwest of an Osceola to Marshfield to Ava line where 1-3 inches of rain will be possible. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another shortwave will move into the area late Monday night into Tuesday as another thunderstorm complex pushes into the area. This one looks to be further north within the CWA than tonight`s complex. A warm front will then lift into the area with upper level ridging developing over the area by the middle of the week. Southwest of the warm front, temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will be possible Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values climbing into the 100 to 108 degree range. The biggest question will be where the front moves to and this will also have implications on the heaviest rain areas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Most of the QPF will be in the northeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the CWA or northeast of the warm front. Additional heavy rain and the potential for flooding will need to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. As we get into the later part of the week, models begin to diverge on strength and depth of upper trough as it pushes across the MS valley. Confidence is much lower for precipitation chances as we get into the later part of the week and next weekend. Temperatures look to be closer to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight into Monday. Expect changes with TAF updates as precipitation develops and confidence improves. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Titus