359
FXUS63 KSGF 100722
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
222 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
  Friday.

- Heat indicies climb into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
  this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Remnants of Beryl have
moved off into Illinois with northwest flow aloft setting up
across the central US. A strong summer time high/upper level
ridge was still set up across the western US. A high pressure
axis was located across Kansas and Missouri. Cool temperatures
were being observed with most locations in the lower to middle
60s. Mostly clear skies, light winds and wet grounds have
allowed for some light/patchy fog to develop. This is mainly
across area river valleys and lakes. Residual flooding was
occuring across some of the harder hit streams in the eastern
Ozarks (Current River and Jacks Fork River).

Today: With some low level moisture present, expect some fair
weather cumulus to develop during the day. NBM data suggests
high confidence in temps reaching the middle to upper 80s across
most of the area today with a few areas coming close to 90 out
west. Shortwave energy will drop into Nebraska, Iowa and
northern Missouri during the afternoon. This will likely cause
some scattered showers and storms to form across northern
Missouri however they look to remain north of the area for the
most part with chances less than 10 percent north of Highway 54.

Tonight: High res guidance and the RAP continues to support the
development of isolated showers and storms overnight across
northwest Missouri. This is in an area of lift from the nose of
a low level jet and that shortwave energy. A few of these
showers or storms may drop into areas along and north of Highway
54 overnight into early Thursday morning with current precip
chances in the 15-20 percent range. Otherwise we could see
additional light river fog across the eastern ozarks.

Thursday: A slightly higher chance for isolated afternoon
showers and storms exists on Thursday (20-25% chance) as
shortwave energy moves through Missouri. These showers and
storms would likely be brief with many areas remaining dry.
Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 are likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Friday: A similar situation to Thursday with passing shortwave
energy during peak heating causing a few showers and storms
with precip chances in the 20-25% range. NBM spreads are small
with temps with high confidence in another day of upper 80s to
lower 90s.

This Weekend into early next week: Ensembles continue to suggest
that the upper level high out west will expand/slide to the east
towards the central US. This will allow for southwest winds at
850mb to advect in warmer air (850mb temps 20-23C). Low level
moisture looks to remain trapped with dewpoints in the upper 60s
to around 70. NBM has been consistently showing temps reaching
the lower to middle 90s Saturday and especially Sunday with even
middle to upper 90s by early next week. 850mb temp climatology
would support these temps and the risk for hazardous heat
indicies (100-105) appears to be increasing for Sunday through
at least Monday. High pressure will suppress rain chances to
less than 10 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Patchy fog will develop through sunrise with the highest chances
for MVFR reduction at BBG. VFR conditions are then expected
through the TAF period with partly cloudy skies and light and
variable winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield