982
FXUS63 KSGF 111626
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1126 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today and
  Friday. A few storms may produce wind gusts up to 50 mph and
  hail to the size of pennies.

- Heat indicies climb into the 100-107 degree range from Sunday
  through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Shortwave energy will lead to isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms today into Friday. For today, SBCAPE of
1,000-1,500 J/kg with deep layer shear of 20-30 kts is expected,
resulting in some potential for stronger storms with gusty winds
and small hail. For Friday, SBCAPE looks closer to 1,500-2,000
J/kg with less than 20 kts deep layer shear, which could result
in isolated gusty winds and small hail. Organized severe
weather is not expected either day and most locations will
remain dry.

As for temps, look for highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s today
and Friday with heat index values in the 90s. This is very
typical for mid-July.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Mostly quiet and warmer weather is expected this period. Can`t
rule out some isolated showers and storms on Saturday, but
chances are less than 15% at this time. Next mentionable chances
for precip is toward the middle of next week when a front may
move into the region, but confidence is quite limited.

As for heat, expect building warmth as the heat dome over the
western CONUS breaks down some and shifts east. Look for highs
in the mid to upper 90s this weekend, in the mid 90s to around
100 Monday and Tuesday, then potentially a bit cooler in the low
to mid 90s Wednesday if the front and associated precipitation
impact the area. Heat index values will be in the low to mid
100s Sunday through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for much of the period. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into early
this evening. Given the limited coverage, we have opted not to
include any mention of thunderstorms in the TAFs through early
evening. Amendments will be required if the threat for a
thunderstorm increases at any of the aerodromes.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are then expected from late
tonight into Friday morning as a low-level jet stream noses into
western Missouri. We have therefore included PROB30 groups for
thunderstorms at both Joplin and Springfield. Most activity is
expected to remain north of Branson.

Brief IFR visibilities can be expected with thunderstorms along
with gusty and erratic winds. Outside of thunderstorms, surface
winds will remain light out of the south to southeast through
Friday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Schaumann