970
FXUS63 KSGF 130805
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
305 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms possible this morning and early afternoon,
  mainly along and north of I-44.

- Heat index values will range from near 100 to 110 Sunday
  through Tuesday.

- Cold front will bring potential for showers and thunderstorm
  late Tuesday into Thursday and cooler conditions Wednesday
  into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Today: Shortwave energy will move through the region this
morning, bringing potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly
along and north of I-44 this morning into the early afternoon.
Not expecting any severe weather with this activity, but locally
heavy rainfall is possible. Confidence in coverage remains on
the lower side given subtle nature of the forcing. Resulting
cloud cover will be over much of the area, but will exit
earliest to the west. Look for high temperatures generally in
the upper 80s to low 90s, but western and southern portions of
the area could see some mid 90s.

Sunday: Can`t rule out some isolated showers, but chances are
less than 10% at this time. As the upper ridge and associated
warm airmass over the western CONUS breaks down and shifts east,
Sunday will be warmer with highs in the mid 90s and heat index
values of 100-105.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days with highs in the
mid 90s to around 100 and heat index values of 100-110. May need
a Heat Advisory for at least portions of the area. Tuesday could
see some changes, mainly across the north, as a cold front has
been trending slightly faster and may impact temperature and
precipitation forecasts.

The front will bring chances for showers and storms late Tuesday
into Thursday as the front looks to slow or stall with northwest
flow over the area. While some low potential for severe weather
exists, the pattern is not yet looking favorable for a very
organized severe event. Temperatures look quite a bit cooler
Wednesday into at least next weekend with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s! The CPC 8-14 day outlook favors below normal
temperatures, as well!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the most part, VFR conditions are expected to persist
through this forecast period. However, there is a chance for
scattered thunderstorms early this morning into this afternoon.
Confidence in details related to that is limited at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus