102
FXUS63 KSGF 142313
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
613 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory continues through Monday. Afternoon heat index
  values will range from near 100 to 108 degrees. Excessive heat
  could linger into Tuesday along and south of I-44.

- 60-70% chances for showers and thunderstorm late Tuesday
  through Wednesday night. Slight risk for excessive rainfall
  and marginal risk for severe storms.

- Below average temperatures Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: A 598dm high pressure
center was located over Colorado and was slowly trying to slide
east. While the area remained on the northeast periphery of the
high, mid level temps have warmed over the last 24 hours per
sounding data. 12z KSGF balloon measured a 11C temp at 700mb and
a 23C temp at 850mb. A few clouds have drifted south into the
northern CWA however most of the area was experiencing clear
skies. Early afternoon temps were in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Even with south to southwesterly winds, dewpoints remained in
the lower to middle 70s, likely due to the greenup from
previous recent rainfall. Heat index values so far were between
95-100 degrees.

Rest of today through tonight: Expect temps to continue to climb
into the lower to middle 90s this afternoon given the mostly
clear skies. Heat index values will continue to climb into the
100-108 degree range this afternoon and a Heat Advisory remains
in effect. Low pressure will continue to strengthen across the
central plains tonight. This will keep a steady south wind going
overnight which will keep temps mild with most areas in the
lower to middle 70s. Locations west of Springfield may only drop
into the upper 70s.

Monday: Another day of excessive heat is likely as 850mb temps
of 22-25C will be overhead with plenty of sunshine. NBM guidance
continues to suggest a 2-4 degree temperature increase from
today with most areas in the middle to upper 90s. A few areas
across southeast Kansas and western Missouri may approach 100.
Dewpoints again look to remain in the lower to middle 70s which
will send heat index values higher than today with most areas
reaching 105-108. The Heat Advisory remains in effect for
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Monday Night through Tuesday: The upper level high will begin to
get nudged south as shortwave energy moves through the northern
plains. A cold front will be sliding south into northern
Missouri by early Tuesday morning. A low level jet looks to
become established from central Oklahoma, through eastern Kansas
and into northwest Missouri. Guidance is showing showers and
thunderstorms across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
This activity may try to slide south into areas along and north
of Highway 54 by sunrise Tuesday and linger Tuesday morning
however confidence is low in this scenario. If this activity
lingers through the morning then temperatures may be reduced
back into the upper 80s to lower 90s. However if the morning
activity is weaker or diminishes then temps may surge back into
the middle or upper 90s with heat index values around 100 to 105
which would lead to another Heat Advisory. Currently, highest
chances for excessive heat appear to be south of I-44 however
confidence is not high enough to extend the Heat Advisory into
Tuesday at this time.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: The cold front will
approach the area Tuesday evening with showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front. A low level jet looks to develop and
interact with the front. This interaction, combined with lift
from the right entrance region of the upper level jet to the
north, will allow for a continuation of showers and storms along
the front through the day Wednesday as the front will be slow to
move south. There is some severe thunderstorm potential Tuesday
night as the NBM is showing at least an 80% chance of CAPE above
2000 for areas along and north of I-44. Severe hazards will be
updated as we get closer however currently thinking damaging
winds and large hail as the main potential hazards.

NBM rainfall probs are also increasing with a 40-50% chance of
at least one inch of rainfall for locations northeast of
Springfield Tuesday night through Wednesday. Elevated
streamflows and soil moisture in these areas may allow for
flooding and will need to monitor this potential as we get
closer to the event. WPC does have a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall for portions of the area. Precip and clouds looks to
keep high temps down into the 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday: Confidence continues to remain high
that much cooler temperatures will arrive underneath northwest
flow late in the week as 850mb temps drop back into the 10-15C
range. This will lead to highs in the lower 80s and lows in the
lower 60s. These values will be about 5-10 degrees below average
for mid July. Rain chances look to remain less than 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR through the period with breezy southwesterly winds becoming
light overnight. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 25 knots are
expected again tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Soria