537
FXUS63 KSGF 200511
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1211 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances increase from west to east Saturday night
  into Sunday...with periodic chances into the work week.

- Unseasonably cool through midweek followed by a slow warming
  trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Upper flow pattern this afternoon depicts an expansive high pressure
ridge over the western US extending well northward along the
lee of the Canadian Rockies...and a deep closed low over
southern Hudson Bay. A pair of shortwaves were also noted...one
descending the western ridge leading to convection over the
western Plains and another over MN over northern MN. A broad
surface high over much of the eastern US then completes the
pattern.

A convective complex of storms is already underway ahead of the
western shortwave which the upper flow takes south into
western/central KS.  CAMs models late tonight are suggestive of a
bit of an eastward propagation into southeast KS with minimal
coverage approaching the KS/MO before dissipating Saturday morning.

Otherwise, another cooler than normal night is in store for the
region compliments of the surface high.

The two aforementioned shortwaves rotate around each other to create
a weakness north of the forecast area Saturday...keeping
heights unchanged despite some warming at h8. Result will be
another cool day Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Low level moisture will begin to return to the region as a modest
low level flow turns southerly Saturday night ahead of an H8 front.
Precipital water around three-quarters of an inch today will double
by Saturday night. Isolated TSRA may form with the H8 Theta
advection otherwise instability will wait until late Saturday
night into Sunday with MLCAPES suggestive to be 500-1000 J/KG.
Consequently POPs will be 20-50% west of Highway 65 Saturday
evening...spreading eastward toward Highway 63 by morning...with
only a tenth to a quarter inch of rain.

The rain will increase in coverage/intensity as the instability is
better realized Sunday...resulting in a quarter to three
quarters of an inch of QPF with the passage of the H8 front.

The region looks to remain in northwest flow through midweek with
ill-defined shortwaves descending over the ridge and through a
slow moving positively orientated upper trough leading to
periods of scattered convection.

More isolated rain chances will then follow into next weekend as the
ridge/trough pattern flattens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR through the period with variable winds and partly cloudy
skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Soria