Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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430 FXUS63 KSGF 041929 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 229 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for far southern Missouri today where afternoon Heat Index values range from 105-109 degrees. - There is a Slight risk (2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across much of the area late this afternoon into the evening hours. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard. - Storms today will produce efficient rainfall rates, producing a risk of localized flooding and flash flooding. - Cooler conditions return Friday into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH Tonight/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Afternoon temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Combine with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, heat index values were in the 100 to 110 range, especially across southern Missouri. This heat and moisture will set the stage for potential shower and storms development late this afternoon into early this evening. CAMS continue to struggle with initiation across the Ozarks but do indicate the potential for showers and storms to begin developing across far eastern Kansas and Northeastern Oklahoma between from 21z this afternoon onward (more likely closer to 22-23z), depending on the model of choice. CAPE values in the 2500-3500j/kg range were in place across the region. As an upper level trough moves across the northern plains and a surface low in Oklahoma begin to shift east a cold front will begin to make its way into the region this evening and overnight. With the expected frontal lift and no cap, showers and storms are expected to develop mainly west of I-49 and move east through this evening. While there looks to be limited low-level Jet support for storms, with the front moving towards the region, and upper level jet energy across northern Missouri providing some upper level support, some storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe. The main concern remains damaging winds with D-CAPE (downdraft CAPE) of 1000-1400j/kg supporting this. Hail potential is less concerning, but 500-900j/kg in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 degree level) and 35-40kts of 0-6km shear would allow for isolated large hail. The tornado chances are rather low though not zero and will rest on how storms develop and move east this evening. Will also monitor for flood potential with PW values in the 1.7 to 1.9" range noted across the region. This will allow for heavy rainfall potential, which may have impact across areas that received rainfall last night. Additional rain amount around an inch with locally 2 inch or higher amounts will be possible with storms as they move across the region this evening. Thus, the current Flash Flood Watch continues for this evening. Showers and storms will push south and east of the region overnight with clearing skies behind the cold front occurring by sunrise or earlier. Cooler temperatures will filter into the area behind the front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 From Friday onward, temperatures will return closer to annual climatology, with highs in the 80s for the rest of the week as a cooler and drier airmass moves over our area. Precipitation chances return Sunday night as a shortwave trough over the Great Plains moves south. Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF develop convection over the southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, and there is some model support for a possible MCS that develops north of this convection that may move into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Confidence in the exact details of this event will become clearer as we approach it. For now, precipitation chances are set from 50-70%. Early next week, ensembles show a pattern of upper-level ridging developing across the western U.S. This will put us in a regime of northwesterly flow. Precipitation chances for the rest of next week currently sit below 30%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Scattered cloud cover early this afternoon across the region in response to daytime heating is expected to increase and expand by middle to late afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. This will occur as a front moves into the region and showers and storms develop. Where storms occur, aviation concerns can expect, MVFR to brief IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR ceilings or scattered deck can be expected. Surface winds may be breezy at times with southwesterly winds this afternoon shifting out of the northwest tonight into Friday morning. Flight conditions will improve overnight into Friday as high pressure slowly moves into the region. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Record High Minimum Temperatures: July 4: KSGF: 78/1901 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097. MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071- 077>081-083-089. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ093-095>098- 101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Kenny AVIATION...Hatch CLIMATE...Nelson