331
FXUS63 KSGF 162321
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
621 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms and flash flooding this evening into
  the overnight hours, especially along and south of Interstate
  44. Damaging winds and large hail with the most intense
  storms. Flood Watch in effect for areas along and east of
  Highway 65.

- Below average temperatures Wednesday into the weekend with dry
  conditions until Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: A wide range in temps
were observed across the area early this afternoon with low 70s
across central Missouri and 90 degrees in Branson. A Heat
Advisory will be cancelled shortly given the clouds. An outflow
boundary is currently laid out from about Pittsburg, KS to
Springfield to West Plains with cooler temps north of the
boundary. This boundary will be a key feature for this evenings
storms. This boundary was further south of the true effective
front that was just south of KC. An MCV/swirly was currently
seen on satellite spinning just east of Wichita, KS. 12z KSGF
sounding measured a strong cap in place along with high PW
values (1.7in).

This afternoon through Tonight: Expectations are that as the MCV
moves east into the area late this afternoon, we will see
development of showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it. Latest
guidance shows ML CAPE values of 2000-3000j/kg basically along
and south of the outflow boundary along with 25-30kts shear.
High clouds continue to inhibit further destabilization. 0-3km
thetaE- diffs are around 25-30C therefore damaging winds are the
most likely threat however given the shear we could see one or
two storms with hail to the size of quarters. Frequent lightning
and heavy rainfall rates will occur. Thunderstorm coverage and
intensity should increase after 5pm with peak severe intensity
in the 6pm-12am timeframe.

Will need to monitor the development of showers and
thunderstorms along the outflow boundary as they may move over
the same areas producing localized flash flooding. The low
level jet will nudge into the area late tonight and may interact
with the outflow boundary and effective front to produce
continued rain chances along and south of I-44. 12z HREF data
suggests pockets of 3-5 inches east/southeast of Springfield
with much less amounts (0.5-2 inches) outside of this. The
Flood Watch remains in effect along and east of Highway 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Wednesday: The front will be moving just south of the area
however there will be enough proximity that a few showers and
storms could linger into the morning for areas south of Highway
60 closer to the Arkansas border. NBM data suggests highs in
the 80s given the clouds and north winds.

Thursday through the weekend: Confidence continues to remain high
that much cooler temperatures will arrive underneath northwest
flow late in the week as 850mb temps drop back into the 10-15C
range and high pressure slides through. This will lead to highs
in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. Friday morning looks
the coolest with some potential for morning lows in the 50s to
around 60! These values will be about 5-15 degrees below
average for mid July.

Rain chances look to remain less than 20
percent until Sunday. Ensemble clusters continue to suggest
higher rain chances with a upper level low moving in and precip
chances are now up to 40 percent for Sunday into Monday and
expect this to increase further over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A band of light showers will continue to move east across
portions of the eastern Missouri Ozarks early this evening.
This activity will not last long for any given location.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across portions of north
central Arkansas early this evening. Most of this activity will
remain south of the area but a few storms could clip portions
of south central Missouri early this evening. This activity will
remain east and southeast of the TAF sites.

Later this evening into tonight an upper level trough and front
will move through the region. Scattered showers and storms are
expected to start developing after 2/4Z mainly along and south
of I-44. This activity will then continue to develop and slowly
move south overnight into Wednesday morning. MVFR to IFR
conditions along with gusty winds will be possible with any of
the storms.

Behind the front MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight
into Wednesday morning with VFR conditions returning by
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MOZ057-058-068>071-
     079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise