647
FXUS63 KSGF 182250
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
550 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions today through much of Saturday. Precipitation
  chances return Sunday into next week.

- Below average temperatures continue into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Expansive fair weather cumulus has developed across the region
this afternoon with a few passing high clouds. Coverage will
likely decrease this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Clearing skies and light winds may open the door to light patchy
fog in the river valleys of the eastern Ozarks overnight into
the early morning hours, though confidence is low.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Friday will be quite similar to today, with scattered mid-level
clouds and cool temperatures near 80 degrees. Overnight lows
will likely again fall into the mid 50s across portions of the
eastern Ozarks.

Global models then depict upper-level shortwave energy diving
south through the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. While
much of the day Saturday appears dry, increasing moisture
advection along a convergence boundary will introduce
precipitation chances to the area beginning Saturday night into
Sunday, particularly for locations west of Highway 65.

LREF clusters continue to show good agreement in stalling the
upper-level trough from the Great Lakes region into eastern
Texas through the beginning of next week. Most ensemble guidance
sets up southwest flow aloft across portions of eastern Missouri
that persists into mid-week. Therefore, sustained moisture
return will allow for the highest daily rain chances to
manifest across the eastern Ozarks Monday through Wednesday.
This activity may be diurnally driven as well, with an increase
in coverage during the afternoon each day. Organized severe
weather is not expected at this time given the apparent lack of
deep-layer shear.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF
period. Daytime cumulus despite after sunset, with light
east/northeast winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Perez