180
FXUS63 KSGF 201931
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
231 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances increase from west to east and along the
  Arkansas State line tonight into Sunday...with periodic
  chances into the work week.

- Unseasonably cool through midweek followed by a slow warming
  trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

An upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes to the
central plains will remain in place and bring periods of showers
and isolated storms to the region through tonight. Models and
CAMS do slide a band of showers into the western Ozarks
overnight but coverage and rainfall amounts will be limited.
Overnight lows will again fall into the 60s. Witt Td`s in the
lower 60s, the dew point depressions should become rather small
allowing for some uncommon impacts to visibilities in valleys
and other low areas. No impacts are anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Upper level energy wrapping around the trough over the region
Sunday will allow for the development of scattered to isolated
showers and occasional storms through the day Sunday and into
Sunday night. Many locations may remain dry and those that do
get rainfall (20-50%) would likely see no more than 0.25". The
best potential looks to be south of Highway 60 and west of
Highway 65.

The upper level trough is then forecast to remain nearly
stationary through the week finally being forced east by Friday.
This will bring multiple days of nearly similar weather with
isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two each day. No
day looks like a washout with limited rain potential each day.

Daily temperatures are forecast to be from 5-10 degrees below
average for this time of year with highs from around 80 to the
middle 80s each day. For the end of the week, upper ridging
will move over the region, however the temperatures will be
slow to rise as overall surface flow remains weak and warm air
advection will be slow in developing. This will allow the mild
temperatures for July to linger into next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A few low to middle level clouds were developing across the
region with VFR flight conditions expected through this evening.
Showers in eastern Kansas associated with a subtle upper level
feature will move towards the Ozarks region overnight and bring
low end chances for showers or an isolated storm to move over
the regions terminals.

The main impacts from the system overnight will be developing
middle to high ceilings across the region. Increasing near
surface moisture will also allow for limited impacts to
visibilities with 6sm forecast for the KJLN and KBBG terminals
overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch