686
FXUS63 KSGF 071346
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
846 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return Today mainly west of Springfield (30-50%).
  Higher chances arrive area wide tonight into Monday (40-70%).

- Remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl arrive across south central
  Missouri Tuesday with a Slight risk for excessive rainfall
  southeast of Interstate 44.

- Temperatures dip below average Tuesday through Thursday with
  above normal temps returning for the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Early morning update concerning MCS over south central KS/north
central OK easing its way toward the forecast area. Ill defined
MCV near Medicine Lodge (KP28) moving along the KS/OK border
with a 34 kt report at Windfield (KWLD) ahead of this feature.

Weak low level flow present(KOUN 12z sounding recorded 15 kt at
H8 and a 15 kt at KSGF), so question how far east the cluster
will make it. KSGF sounding was also dry (PW 1.16) with meager
instability further impeding the eastward advance of rainfall.

Still, the HRRR has a decent handle on the current positioning
and has been very consistent with multiple past runs so it
merits attention in dissipating MCS as it approaches southeast
KS toward noon with some convective redevelopment late this
afternoon over SE KS, NW OK which may spill over into far SW MO
into the early evening.

This trend follows forecast POPs though may need to taper these
chances back a touch if supported by later CAMs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and
upper air analysis continues to show a upper level trough
centered across the central US. Upper level ridging was occuring
across the western US which was leading to excessive heat out there.
Tropical Storm Beryl continues to move northwest towards Texas.
Locally, our atmosphere was relatively dry and stable per 00z
KSGF sounding. Showers and storms across the plains continue to
dissipate as they approach the area. Mostly clear skies were
occuring with temps dropping comfortably into the lower 60s to
around 70. Some light fog was also occuring near area lakes and
rivers given the light winds and clear skies.

Today through Tonight: Latest high res guidance indicates that
additional shortwave energy will approach southeast Kansas and
far western Missouri by this afternoon. This may cause
scattered thunderstorms to develop out there in an area of
increasing moisture and instability. Otherwise most locations
across southern Missouri look to remain dry with the NBM
suggesting a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

Scattered thunderstorms may linger across southern Missouri
overnight as a front drops into the area however higher
chances look to remain southwest of the area, closer to the low
level jet. 00z HREF data shows localized amounts of 0.1 to 0.5in
with any of the thunderstorm activity today through tonight
across the area. Locations east of Springfield could remain dry
through tonight.

Monday: Additional shortwave energy looks to move into the area
from the west which will cause additional scattered showers and
storms to develop across the area during the day. Widespread
clouds looks to keep temps cooler with highs in the lower to
middle 80s per the latest NBM. Higher precipitable water look
to be in place (1.4-1.8in) therefore the localized pockets of
0.5 to 1 inch of rain that the HREF suggests looks reasonable
however it does not look widespread. This looks to change
however as the remnants of Beryl moves closer to the area by
Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Remnants of Beryl: Ensembles are coming into better agreement
that the remnants of Beryl will move into northeast Texas Monday
night and then through Arkansas on Tuesday. Given this track,
the area will likely see widespread clouds and higher rain
chances begnning Monday night across the Missouri/Arkansas
border. However the main brunt of rain looks to occur Tuesday
into Tuesday night as the system moves into southcentral and
southeast Missouri. This track places locations southeast of
Interstate 44 in a favored location for widespread rainfall and
precip chances have increased to 70-80% and will likely increase
further with additional updates. The latest ECMWF EFI/Shift of
Tails Tool is showing this area potentially seeing a significant
rain event. Furthermore, NBM probs for 2 inches or more of
rainfall have now increased to 40% across the West Plains
region. WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for this
area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There typically is a tight
gradient with rainfall on the northwest side and this will
become better defined as we get closer. Overall, highest precip
amounts (over one inch) are expected southeast of Interstate 44.
Depending on the exact track, a few thunderstorms could also
occur Monday night as the system approaches however at this time
the higher chances look to remain just southeast of the area
but will need to monitor given the wind profiles.

Clouds, precip, northerly winds will likely keep temps below
average Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s
Tuesday and lower 80s Wednesday.

Heat returns end of the week/beyond: Thursday looks to be a
transition day as ensemble cluster analysis continues to suggest
that the upper ridge out west will slowly build in for the end
of the week into the weekend. This will advect in warmer 850mb
temps from the southwest with NBM data already showing high
temps in the 90s with rain chances less than 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the TAF period. There
is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at JLN
however higher chances exist tonight at JLN and SGF and have
included prob30 groups. Winds will remain out of the south with
a turn to the southwest or west this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield