Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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141 FXUS63 KSGF 121145 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 645 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms into this evening. A few storms may produce wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. - Heat indices climb into the 100-107 degree range from Sunday through Tuesday. - A cold front will bring the potential for more thunderstorms to the region next Wednesday or Thursday along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A cluster of thunderstorms has developed in an area of uncapped elevated instability over the western CWA early this morning. Storms will gradually shift east through the day today, while generally diminishing in coverage and intensity as the LLJ weakens. Some of these storms may produce 60 mph winds and 1" hail, with the potential for that being early this morning. Associated cloud cover will keep highs a bit cooler today over all but the western CWA. Look for highs from the mid to upper 80s over much of the area, but highs over the west will be in the low to mid 90s. For tonight into Saturday, models continue to depict scenarios of either a decaying MCS to isolated to scattered thunderstorms. This makes for a lower than normal confidence level for 24 hours out. Overall, the airmass will be warmer on Saturday which may allow for highs in the low to mid 90s, but that will be highly dependent on cloud cover and precip. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Mostly quiet and warmer weather is expected to start this period. Next mentionable chances for precip is toward the middle of next week when a front may move into the region, but confidence is limited. As for heat, expect building warmth as the heat dome over the western CONUS breaks down some and shifts east. Look for highs in the mid 90s Sunday, in the mid 90s to around 100 Monday and Tuesday, then potentially a cooler in the mid 80s to mid 90s Wednesday if the front and associated precipitation impact the area. Thursday currently looks quite a bit cooler with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Heat index values will be in the low to mid 100s Sunday through Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday (for southern portions of the area). && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly push east into this afternoon while diminishing. After storms exist east of the TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus