298
FXUS63 KSGF 171713
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1213 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms have formed along a frontal boundary
  overnight. Heavy rainfall will occur with rates up to 1 to 3
  inches per hour. Flood Watch has been extended into far SW MO
  and is in effect for areas along and south of Interstate 44
  until 7 AM this morning.

- Below average temperatures arrive today and persist into the
  weekend with dry conditions until Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Current radar and satellite imagery show thunderstorms popping up
along a stationary boundary west to east sitting on the MO/AR
border. Storms first formed over NE OK and will continue to spread
east into far southern MO throughout the night. With a moist airmass
in place along a frontal boundary, flooding is a threat tonight.
MUCAPE values near 2000 J/kg with PWAT values greater than 1.8
inches will lead to storms producing efficient rainfall rates. This
is also in addition to weak LCL-EL winds of around 20 knots and
corfidi upshear values of 10 to 12 knots. Therefore, storms
will be slow moving and may train over an area for an extended
period of time. This has led to an expansion of the Flood Watch
to include Barry, Lawrence, McDonald, and Newton counties to
account for the placement of the front and where models show the
heaviest rainfall occurring. The 3 hr FFG values for southern
MO is around 2 to 3 inches and flash flooding and rises on area
creeks and rivers are expected with this activity.

Mostly to partly cloudy skies will linger through the day and keep
us a bit cooler in the mid to upper 80s. Clouds start to break up
this afternoon. Tonight, skies will be mostly clear with minimum
temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

Thursday will feature pleasant weather with mostly sunny skies and
highs in the low to mid 80s. Drier air will continue to filter over
the area as surface high pressure builds over the upper
Midwest. Expect RH values in the 50% range with dewpoints in the
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Much cooler temperatures will persist through the weekend with
northwest flow and 850mb temps in the 10-15C range. This will
lead to highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. Friday
morning looks the coolest with some potential for morning lows
in the 50s to around 60! These values will be about 5- 15
degrees below average for mid July.

Rain chances return Sunday as a 500mb low moves over the Central
Plains. Multiple shortwaves will traverse around the base of the
trough leading to an active start to next week. Rain chances are
around 40 to 50 percent Sunday into Tuesday with brief breaks in
precipitation throughout each day. Though, high/low temperatures
still remain a few degrees below normal through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A few low clouds across southern Missouri producing MVFR to IFR
ceilings are expected to lift early in the TAF period. Gradual
clearing will occur from northwest to southeast throughout the
afternoon. Prevailing winds will be out of the northeast between
5-15 kt.

There is a chance of light fog at the sites early tomorrow
morning around 12Z, but confidence in significant reductions to
visibility was too low to include in these TAFs.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Didio