Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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660 FXUS63 KSGF 131731 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms possible this morning and early afternoon, mainly along and north of I-44. - Heat index values will range from near 100 to 110 Sunday through Tuesday. - Cold front will bring potential for showers and thunderstorm late Tuesday into Thursday and cooler conditions Wednesday into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Today: Shortwave energy will move through the region this morning, bringing potential for showers and thunderstorms mainly along and north of I-44 this morning into the early afternoon. Not expecting any severe weather with this activity, but locally heavy rainfall is possible. Confidence in coverage remains on the lower side given subtle nature of the forcing. Resulting cloud cover will be over much of the area, but will exit earliest to the west. Look for high temperatures generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, but western and southern portions of the area could see some mid 90s. Sunday: Can`t rule out some isolated showers, but chances are less than 10% at this time. As the upper ridge and associated warm airmass over the western CONUS breaks down and shifts east, Sunday will be warmer with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values of 100-105. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and heat index values of 100-110. May need a Heat Advisory for at least portions of the area. Tuesday could see some changes, mainly across the north, as a cold front has been trending slightly faster and may impact temperature and precipitation forecasts. The front will bring chances for showers and storms late Tuesday into Thursday as the front looks to slow or stall with northwest flow over the area. While some low potential for severe weather exists, the pattern is not yet looking favorable for a very organized severe event. Temperatures look quite a bit cooler Wednesday into at least next weekend with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s! The CPC 8-14 day outlook favors below normal temperatures, as well! && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Rain chances will continue to diminish through the rest of the day with VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will begin to turn more south to southwesterly through the TAF period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Burchfield