Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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857 FXUS63 KSGF 160011 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 711 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory continues today. Afternoon heat index values will range from 103 to 109 degrees. Excessive heat to linger into Tuesday with another Heat Advisory. - Cold front brings 60-80% chances for showers and thunderstorm late Tuesday through Wednesday night. Slight Risk for excessive rainfall and Marginal Risk for severe storms. - Below average temperatures Wednesday into the weekend with dry conditions until Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows that the center of the mid level high as moved slightly east/southeast into northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. Warm air aloft continues with 12z KSGF sounding data showing 700mb temps of 12C and 850mb temps of 23C. Surface low pressure continues to strengthen across the rockies with southwest winds locally. Skies were clear across the area with early afternoon temps already in the lower 90s. Dewpoints continue to be in the lower to middle 70s which were contributing to Heat Index values around 100. This Afternoon through Tonight: With clear skies and warm air aloft, temps will continue rising into the middle to upper 90s through the afternoon. While some low level mixing may occur, dews for the most part will remain above 70 therefore peak heat index values around 105 will be common and the Heat Advisory remains in effect. A low level jet will increase overnight to our west as shortwave energy drops south into the central/northern plains. Given the strong warm air aloft/capping inversion, most of the area will remain dry until perhaps after 3am. The timeframe from 3am-6am is when the low level jet will begin to veer into the area and may be enough forcing to develop some elevated showers and storms for areas along and north of I-44. Given the uncertainty in the coverage of storms, have kept precip chances fairly low (less than 40 percent). However if confidence increases in more coverage then precip chances will need to be upped. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Most of the 12z guidance suggests that any elevated showers and storms (likely non severe) will perhaps linger through mid/late morning or until the low level jet weakens. A cold front will be in the process of slowly dropping south during the day however given the lack of a strong cold pool/push south it may stay just north of the area until the evening. If enough clouds dissipate then strong heating could materialize across southern Missouri. This would allow for a warm and unstable airmass to develop. A weak wave/vort looks to pass by during the mid afternoon and could cause isolated thunderstorms to form. Guidance is not in agreement on location however some argument can be made that areas east of Springfield have the highest chance of afternoon storms in the less capped/more unstable airmass ahead of the incoming vort/wave. Shear looks weak (around 20kts) however given the instability and potential for 25-30C theta E Diffs, we could see a severe storm develop with damaging winds the main hazard. Temperatures will be tricky given the morning clouds however given the warm start to the day and dewpoints remaining high, any clearing will allow for temps to climb into the 90s by the afternoon. Heat Index values around 105 could occur again and the Heat Advisory remains in effect for all but three counties across the north. It is possible that the Heat Advisory could be trimmed on its northern edges early tomorrow if it looks like temps will be cooler. We have used a blend of NBM and short term models for highs with the highest potential for mid 90 highs along and south of a Joplin to Springfield to West Plains line. By Tuesday night, a cold front to the north will be dropping south into the area. Plenty of lift will occur across the area, both from a low level jet interaction and the placement of the upper level jet. Ensembles suggests one or two clusters of showers and storms will develop along the front and drop south into the area. While instability will diminish some overnight, there will be enough for the potential for damaging winds with a few storms. High PW values (1.8in) will also allow for heavy rainfall rates that could lead to localized flash flooding. If confidence continues to increase in the flash flood potential then a Flood Watch may be needed for portions of the area for Tuesday night-Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Wednesday: The cold front will be slow to clear the area with showers and isolated thunderstorms potentially continuing through the morning and afternoon before diminishing late in the day. If storms move over the same areas then some additional flash flooding will occur. Latest NBM rainfall amount probs for the next 48 hours indicate 60-70% chances for at least 0.50in rainfall east of highway 65. There are also 40-50% probs for at least one inch of rainfall in the same areas. Keep in mind that the highest amounts will occur wherever the heavier storms develop with some areas seeing much less than others. The 12z HREF shows pockets of as little as 0.25in total for a few areas, perhaps southwest of Springfield. Clouds and precip will keep temps much cooler for Wednesday with most areas staying in the 80s. Thursday through the weekend: Confidence continues to remain high that much cooler temperatures will arrive underneath northwest flow late in the week as 850mb temps drop back into the 10-15C range and high pressure slides through. This will lead to highs in the lower 80s and lows in the lower 60s. Friday morning looks the coolest with some potential for morning lows in the 50s to around 60! These values will be about 5-15 degrees below average for mid July. Rain chances look to remain less than 20 percent until Sunday. Ensemble clusters are beginning to converge more on the next shortwave dropping in around this time and may see precip chances increase as we get closer to Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Clear VFR conditions to begin the TAF period, with multiple complications as the forecast period progresses. Wind shear of 35-45kts will begin at all 3 TAF sites around 06Z as the low- level jet kicks in, aided by wind gusts of 20-30kts, with the shear weakening by 15-16Z as the LLJ moves northeastward. Winds will gradually turn more southwesterly through the day. Ceilings will gradually lower, but areas that remain precipitation free should stay VFR. Confidence in location and coverage of morning showers and thunderstorms remains low, with just enough confidence for prob30 at JLN and SGF. It`s not out of the realm of possibility for BBG to see an isolated storm or two move through, but the bulk of the convection is expected to remain northeast of all three TAF sites. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055- 066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Camden