344
FXUS66 KSEW 112254
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
354 PM PDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge remains over Western Washington
through the weekend with continued low-level onshore flow. This will
maintain above normal temperatures, but still notably cooler than
the start of the week. Little change through the week ahead, with no
rain expected and only subtle variations in the strength of the
marine pushes each night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...The overall pattern will
not change too much through the weekend with high pressure in
place over the region and light onshore flow maintaining some
cloud cover along the coast, into the lower Chehalis valley, and
also through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. This will remain a
somewhat shallow push though - enough to bring the cooling marine
influence progressively into the interior, but unlikely to bring
stratus to fill the interior. Otherwise, some haze/smoke aloft will
remain possible near the Cascades, especially just west of the
crest and near the gaps in the northern Cascades as mid-level
flow turns light/easterly near the Pioneer Fire. Expect overnight
lows back down into the 50s and closer to seasonal normals, while
abundant sunshine will maintain highs in the 80s.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Strong ensemble agreement
to support very little impactful changes to the weather pattern
through much of next week. Expect continued influence from high
pressure aloft with onshore low-level flow persisting through the
week. This will bring additional rounds of stratus pushes in the
morning and plenty of afternoon sun for most, along with high
temperatures generally in the 80s through the interior. A weak
disturbance around Monday or Tuesday may be responsible for a
slightly deeper push of marine stratus and favor temperatures more
in the lower 80s as opposed to mid to upper 80s, but that`s
really the biggest change in the day to day pattern through the
next week

&&

.AVIATION...Westerly flow over W WA as a flat upper ridge remains
parked over the region. VFR will continue for mostly all
terminals, the exception being KHQM for a marine stratus push
later on this evening and into Friday morning for MVFR/IFR
conditions. Stratus may get close enough to KOLM, with a 40%
chance of MVFR conditions early in the morning as well. Otherwise,
VFR will persist for all other area terminals into Friday, with
marine stratus burning back by 18z.

KSEA...VFR will continue through Friday. N/NW winds this afternoon
8 to 12 knots decreasing around 4 to 8 knots overnight and into
Friday morning.

Mazurkiewicz

&&

.MARINE...A surface high pressure continues to remain over the
offshore waters with lower pressure inland. Small craft advisories
remain over the coastal waters for increased northwesterlies.
Onshore flow will continue throughout the week, resulting in
additional headlines for the Strait of Juan De Fuca.

Coastal seas 6 to 8 feet this afternoon will increase to around 10
feet tonight (mainly in the outer coastal water zone). Seas will
then gradually decrease to around 4 to 6 feet into the weekend.

Mazurkiewicz

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S.
     Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape
     Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-East
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$