038
FXUS61 KRNK 060757
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another very warm and humid day is in storm, but temperatures
and humidity lower some for the weekend. A cold front moves
partially through the area today and will bring a few showers
and thunderstorms to the region. These continue mainly south of
Highway 460 through the weekend, close to the stalled front.
Heavy rain and lightning will be most likely for our North
Carolina counties. The front vacillates over the area into next
week, and we will see a chance for thunderstorms each day, with
temperatures close to normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Heat Advisory issued for parts of the NC and VA Piedmont and
Southside VA. Some records may be reached or broken, see Climate
section below.

2. A cold front will bring drier air to the mountains beginning
this afternoon, limiting showers and thunderstorms to the NC
Piedmont and perhaps Pittsylvania, Charlotte, and Halifax in VA.

A few showers/isolated thunderstorms were moving across our
VA/NC Piedmont along a surface trough, and were remnants of a
complex of storms from last night. A cold front was just to our
northwest, and will move into our VA Counties around 8 AM. We
may see a few showers, but most of the activity will wait until
the front reaches a Boone, NC, to Martinsville, VA, to Red Hat,
VA line where much juicier air will be. Short wave energy
arrives in SW flow later in the afternoon and evening and will
impinge on this region.

PWATs over the Piedmont where storms are likely will be at
least 2.10", while drier air will already be filtering into the
mountains north of the front. Last night, GSP`s soundings had
2.22" PWAT, which is extremely high and above climatology.

With the front mostly through our forecast area, and
instability pooled mostly to our southeast, expect the main
concern to be heavy rain leading to flooding along and south of
the Boone to Red Hat line mentioned earlier. We already saw
some instances of the last night, and with such high moisture
content, slow storm motion, and recent rains to boot, it will
not take much to have problems. This is suppported by WPC`s
Slight Risk for Excessive Rain area.

Compressional warming along the front as well as high dew
points and continued warmer than normal temperatures (850mb
temperatures around 20C) has lead to the need for another Heat
Advisory for Buckingham, Appomattox, Campbell, Halifax,
Pittsylvania, and Caswell Counties from 11 AM to 8 PM today.

Tonight, cooler and drier air continues to filter in, but
showers may continue over NC depending on where the front
stalls. Where skies clear, expect dense fog, especially in the
valleys and where it rains.

Confidence in the near term is moderate due to uncertainty in
frontal location.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. A cold front will bring slightly drier air, limiting showers
and thunderstorms to areas mainly south of Highway 460.

2. Slightly cooler temperatures expected for this weekend, though
these will still be near to slightly above normal.

Looking to Saturday night, weather forecast models are in decent
agreement that a cold front will make slow progress eastward
across central Virginia, where it will gradually stall as it
loses its push of cooler drier air from the northwest. Difficult
at this point to determine where the front will eventually
stall. Regardless, it is expected to remain both close enough
and shallow enough to support lingering showers and
thunderstorms through Sunday night, mainly for areas to the
south of Highway 460. Because of light steering winds, whatever
activity that does develop has the potential to produce a few
heavy/prolonged downpours that may result in localized flooding
issues. Enough dry air will be present north of Highway 460 to
limit any coverage of rainfall to isolated pockets at best.

By Monday however, the front will begin to lose its
characteristics and fade/wash out as low pressure passes
across the Great Lakes, dragging another cold front across the
lower Ohio River Valley. Southerly wind flow will increase in
response to the area of low pressure, carrying deeper moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico northward. This will allow for coverage
of spotty showers and storms to expand further northward to
include southeast West Virginia through the southern Shenandoah
Valley.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Warmer than normal temperatures with daily storms next week.

Spotty showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon
through the middle of the next workweek as a cold front
approaches from the west on Tuesday and eventually stalls
somewhere across the Mid- Atlantic. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms looks highest for Tuesday as an upper level
disturbance passes across the central Appalachians. Precipitable
water values will remain abnormally high through the period,
ranging from 1.7 inches to as high as 2.2 inches for much of the
area, which would support the potential for heavy downpours,
especially from the slower-moving cells.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday. Near normal temperatures are possible for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Areas of fog expected overnight with potential for IFR
conditions in the mountains per visibility dropping below 3sm.
A period of dense fog is likely in the mountain valleys and
along the western slopes of the Appalachians where a layer of
low level stratus may form.

Any fog/stratus tonight is expected to dissipate by mid morning
Saturday with return of widespread VFR Saturday afternoon.

Average confidence in the above forecast.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Some lingering showers and sub-VFR possible Saturday evening in
the DAN area. Fog possible through the period in the early
mornings. The pattern stays unsettled such that daily chances
for storms exists. Thinking mainly VFR but sub-VFR when it
storms and any late night fog.

Confidence is moderate for the extended aviation outlook.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Record highs and warmest lows temperatures for July 6th. Record
high minimum temperatures this morning as well as record highs
this afternoon are in jeopardy in some cases.

Saturday 07/06/2024
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    92 2010    44 1972     63 1972     71 1977
KDAN   102 1990    54 2014     70 1972     78 1990
KLYH    98 2010    52 2014     69 1909     74 1900
KROA   100 1999    48 1979     73 1972     74 1977
KRNK    94 2010    42 1972     65 1972     69 1932

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFCX radar is running in a degraded state. The radar receiver
was damaged heavy rain getting into the radome Friday afternoon.
Please use surrounding radars or a radar mosaic until our
equipment can be repaired.

BLF ASOS...the tipping bucket failed Friday afternoon. Will
await the morning Coop report from Bluefield and send a
correction to Friday`s climate summary at that time.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH
CLIMATE...SH
EQUIPMENT...PM/SH