398
FXUS61 KRNK 290052
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
852 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering warm air mass will remain in our area until close to
the middle of next week. A cold front will break this warm
streak when it pushes through next week. Until then, most days
will experience diurnal showers and storms causing localized
flooding threats, as well as isolated severe storms causing wind
damage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EST SATURDAY...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

Pockets of thunderstorms continue to fire off, mostly in the
vicinity of mountain locales where orographics assist with
forcing. These storms are mostly driven by instability due to
the hot and humid conditions in the low levels. However, they
remain disorganized and usually short lived as there is little
shear or movement in the mid to upper levels. As such, the
greatest concern is wind damage from downbursts, and torrential
rainfall rates, as some of these storms have exhibited cores
>30kft. The amount of severe storm potential will decrease after
sunset, but given this is a similar environment to last night
and some weaker storms continued to form around the area most of
the night, a rumble of thunder here or there overnight wouldn`t
be out of the question.

From the previous discussion...

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY AS A THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AND
HUMID ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT ON SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS THAT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE TERRAIN AND OUTFLOW INDUCED ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES ENOUGH TO LIFT PARCELS TO THEIR LFC.
AGAIN, WITH NOT MUCH FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OUTSIDE OF A
30-40 KNOT WEAK JET AT THE 250MB LEVEL IN EASTERN VIRGINIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MEANDER AND FLOW ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND FROM PREVIOUS STORMS DOWNBURSTS. INITIAL
INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS THIS
WEEK, WITH HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SBCAPE FORECAST IN THE 1500-2000
J/KG RANGE. DCAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE ON PAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH FORECAST VALUES IN THE 700-900
J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL.
THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT, WITH DOWNED TREES
AND POWER LINES CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WHERE THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DOWNBURSTS OCCUR.

OVERALL, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR, WITH HIGHS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE LOW 90S, AND
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. EARLY
MORNING FOG CAN`T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE RAIN
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TODAY`S SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1210 PM EDT SATURDAY...

KEY MESSAGES:

1. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

2. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK.

A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT MONDAY. WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR, HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL RUN 3F TO 6F WARMER THAN NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE LOWER
80S TO LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
MAINLY CONFIDED TO THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PULSE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING TO THE
VA/NC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN ORGANIZED
LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...

KEY MESSAGES:

1. THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

2. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

COOLER, DRIER WEATHER WILL SUCCEED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WINDS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION INCREASING THE HUMIDITY STARTING FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID 80 TO
MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...

VFR conditions for most of this forecast period. Calm winds with
a tendency to be out of the northwest. Pop-up thunderstorms will
pepper the area, and they have shown that they can generate tall
storms with strong updrafts, meaning they can cause particularly
erratic wind gusts near them.

Sunday morning will feature some fog given how humid it is and
all the recent rainfall. Visibilty will drop most likely for
BLF/LWB/BCB in the hours around dawn, but LYH and ROA could
experience some brief lighter fog as well. More storms and
showers will fire up tomorrow afternoon, creating conditions
similar to the past couple days.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG. A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY WILL BRING A
BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS AND BETTER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH DRY AIR TO REDUCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BEING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
OUTSIDE OF ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP NEAR BCB AND
LWB.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VFJ
NEAR TERM...EB/VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/VFJ