Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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254 FXUS61 KRNK 090044 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 844 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Frontal boundary wavers over the region into midweek before another front tracks in from the west by late in the week. It will remain unseasonably warm and humid with daily chances for showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 830 PM EDT Monday... Key messages: - Maintaining chance of storms near VA/NC border until midnight. - Heat/humidity increases Tuesday, with heat indices above 100 over portions of the piedmont and foothills. Keeping higher pops along VA/NC border where residual CAPE still feeding outflow boundary from showers which developed Monday afternoon. Wind field is light so no steering flow, the showers showing little movement. Expect the showers/storms to weaken and erode between now and midnight with patchy fog and muggy temps overnight. Tuesday, not much change, though the humidity will be slightly higher and with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s east of the mountains, a few areas could see close to 105 degrees, so am planning on heat advisory over portions of the VA/NC piedmont for Tue afternoon. Storms will be widely scattered once again with best coverage over the southern Blue Ridge and adjacent areas into the NC foothills. Have added heavy rain as well in the weather as again slow moving storms with pwats 1.7-2.2 inches will lead to rainfall rates of 2-4"/hr. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1230 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1. Daily shower and storm chances with greatest coverage on Wednesday. Ample moisture advection from the south to southwest is progged to phase with the same upper trough that picks up the remnants of TC Beryl. While the remnant low center is set to track NEWD across the TN and Ohio Valleys, the CWA will still be in a very moist airmass with PWATs looking to be over 2 inches for a large portion of the area on Wednesday. While the shear params look to be pretty low, there could be some decent instability aided with daytime heating in such a moist environment, so not anticipating much in the form of organized convection but could have some strong pulse storms with hydrometeor loading and enhanced downdrafts/microbursts. Prior to convection, some heat indices could get close to advisory levels of 105 mainly in the Piedmont. The upper shortwave further ejects the Beryl remnants into New England for Thursday, though we stay in the eastern part of the longwave trough and associated SW flow aloft, along with some proximity to an elongated moisture axis near the Piedmont. Will maintain some chance to likely pops for shower and storm development. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1230 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1. Some increased shower and storm activity for Friday, then gradual heating and mainly daytime driven precip for the weekend. Upper trough looks to have some dampening by Friday, which allows for the moisture axis to shift westward and build more into the CWA. Have therefore a large portion of the area with likely to categorical pops. By the weekend, the upper flow should shift to more zonal so temps look to moderate a bit warmer each day along with mainly chance pops for general diurnally driven convection in a typical summertime environment. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Monday... Little or no threat to terminals this evening with respect to deep convection. KBLF has best opportunity for a shower but confidence low and will keep it out of the TAF attm amending as if needed. Overall VFR through midnight, any isolated shra/tsra fading. Anticipate fog developing in the valleys late tonight, so have LIFR at LWB and MVFR to IFR at BCB/BLF. Low clouds/fog erode by 13-14z with VFR during the day Tuesday. Expecting another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Probability too low to add to the TAFs attm. Above average confidence on wind but average on cig/vsby and storms. AVIATION OUTLOOK... Expect the pattern to stay humid with daily chance of storms mainly afternoon/evening through the week. Fog at night possible. Mainly VFR outside storms and fog/low stratus mornings. && .CLIMATE... As of 520 AM EDT Monday... Records for the warmest low temperatures may be set at Blacksburg on Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week so those records have been listed here. Monday 07/08/2024 Site MaxT Year Warm Low Year KBLF 93 2012 71 1977 KDAN 103 2012 78 1930 KLYH 101 2012 75 2022 KROA 102 2012 77 2012 KRNK 96 1988 70 1941 July 9th Site MaxT Year Warm Low Year KBLF 92 2007 75 1994 KDAN 103 1977 76 1987 KLYH 102 1936 74 1992 KROA 101 1936 77 1992 KRNK 97 1988 67 1939 && .EQUIPMENT... As of 120 PM EDT Monday... KFCX Radar will be inoperative until the technicians can work on on replacing the defective part by late Tuesday or possibly Wednesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ034-035- 043>047-058-059. NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ004>006. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...AB LONG TERM...AB AVIATION...PM CLIMATE...WP EQUIPMENT...WP