688
FXUS61 KRNK 141046
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
646 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Well above normal to near record warm temperatures will be found
across the region through Tuesday. Only an isolated shower or storm
is expected this afternoon, with scattered storms possible Monday
and Tuesday as moisture builds across the region. The best chance
for showers and storms will be on Wednesday and Thursday as a cold
front dips south through our area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

1. High confidence for well above normal temperatures through the
period with near record high minimum temperatures possible Monday
morning at Roanoke.

Confidence is high that well above normal temperatures will prevail
through the near term period, as anomalously high 850mb
temperatures, one to three standard deviations above normal today
and two to three plus standard deviations above normal Monday are
expected. The NBM guidance was the warmest of all the guidance
reviewed and was used for the temperature forecast. This guidance
produces a 100 degree high at Roanoke for Monday which seems quite
plausible considering ROA reached 98 on Saturday. If this
verifies, it would be the first 100 degree day at ROA since July
20, 2020. The spread in the individual NBM members for both
high and low temperatures today and Monday where generally
within 2 to 3 degrees yielding high confidence in the
temperature forecast.

The only potential factor that could keep temperatures below
forecast values would be if showers or storms, or debris cloud cover
from complexes of storms to our west impacted the area.
Chances for showers and storms today appear extremely limited as the
HREF shows the highest probability of CAPES exceeding 1000 j/kg east
of our area and east of a weak surface boundary.
Terrain induced isolated storms along the southern Blue Ridge are
also possible, but a large majority of the area will remain dry.
Complexes of storms across the southern Great Lakes and Upper
Missouri Valley this morning should remain to our west and/or weaken
as they move southeast.

A slightly better chance for showers and storms is expected Monday
with increasing PWAT values, higher CAPES, and faint upper level
disturbances crossing an slightly more progressive flow. A continued
deep west flow should limited precip coverage and feel the 00Z HRW
FV3 forecast of scattered to pockets of likely POPs Monday afternoon
are overdone. Kept POPs at a slight chance for most areas Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures and heat indices above 100 degrees
possible Monday and Tuesday.
2. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms.

Mostly zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure over the area
start off the work week. Subsidence from the high will keep
temperatures on a warming trend, increasing to above seasonal
normals for Monday and Tuesday. Probabilities of temperatures in the
Piedmont and Southside, and Roanoke Valley, reaching 95 degrees or
greater is around 90% for the first half of the week. Temperatures
may reach record values on Monday and Tuesday, please reference the
Climate section of the forecast discussion for current record highs
and record high minimum temperatures. Heat indices will also be
high, near 100 to 105 degrees, east of the Blue Ridge, so Heat
Advisories may be needed.

Plenty of daytime heating and modest moisture, and a weak upper
shortwave passing north of the area, could lead to isolated to
scattered showers and storms developing along the higher terrain
each afternoon. However, with a lack of strong forcing and
substantial moisture, severe potential is limited, and any
activity should wane after sundown.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Increasing chances and coverage of showers and storms by midweek.
2. Continued above normal temperatures and high heat indices through
Wednesday.
3. Slightly cooler temperatures to end the work week.

By midweek, troughing will deepen into the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes region, while a surface low pushes northeastward into eastern
Canada, with a trailing cold front moving into the northeast and Mid
Atlantic. This system will bring increased chances and coverage of
showers and thunderstorms to the area along and ahead of the front,
as early as Wednesday afternoon. The front looks to move slowly
towards the southeast, not reaching the coast until the end of the
work week. With the front over the area, shower and storms chances
continue through at least Thursday or Friday morning, until the
front exits the area. Southwesterly flow at the surface and aloft
will advect greater moisture into the area from the Gulf, with
precipitable water values increasing to the 90th percentile relative
to climatology, in the 1.5 to 2 inch range, by Wednesday afternoon.
With plenty of ambient moisture, and showers/storms have the
potential to produce moderate to heavy rainfall. Strong heating and
ample moisture, along with the better forcing and shear from the
front, storms may be more widespread Wednesday and Thursday, though
it is still too far out to discern mesoscale details, and thus
severe potential, at this time.

Following the front, a drier and cooler airmass works its way into
the region to start the weekend, bringing temperatures down, closer
to seasonal norms, in the upper 70s to low 80s, for Friday and
Saturday. Cloud cover and rain may also keep temperatures cooler on
Thursday, but Wednesday may still be well above normal, depending on
the timing of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Sunday...

Early Sunday morning VFR conditions were noted across much of
the region and confidence is high that VFR conditions will
persist through the TAF period, with the exception of IFR
conditions at KLYH due to fog early this morning. Visibilities
here are already improving and should return to VFR around 13Z
(9 AM EDT).

Isolated showers and storms Sunday afternoon will
primarily be focused along the southern Blue Ridge and the
probability of this isolated activity impacting any TAF sites
today are extremely low. West to southwest winds less than 10
knots are expected through 12Z Monday.

VFR conditions continue tonight, with the exception of patchy
IFR to LIFR conditions due to fog at KLWB for a couple of hours
early Monday morning.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily afternoon SHRA/TSRA chances continue each day through
Tuesday, and dissipate at night. A front crosses the region
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing more widespread SHRA/TSRA and
sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 715 PM EDT Saturday...

Blacksburg tied the record high for today of 92 degrees. The
previous record was set in 1936. Roanoke managed 98 degrees, one
shy of the record of 99 set in 1954.

Except for perhaps the daytime high for Blacksburg on July 16, we
currently are not forecasting record high temperatures or record
maximum low temperatures Monday, July 15, and Tuesday, July 16,
values will be close enough that some folks might be curious what
the records are. Below you will find a table that lists these values
for different locations in our region and the years those records
were set.

************* RECORDS FOR July 15 *************
+=============================================+
|  LOCATION   | RECORD HIGH  | RECORD MAX LOW |
| Blacksburg  |  99 in 1954  |   72 in 1954   |
| Bluefield   |  91 in 1951  |   72 in 1942   |
| Danville    | 104 in 1936  |   79 in 1922   |
| Lynchburg   | 101 in 1936  |   77 in 1988   |
| Roanoke     | 103 in 1936  |   74 in 1995   |
+=============================================+



************* RECORDS FOR July 16 *************
+=============================================+
|  LOCATION   | RECORD HIGH  | RECORD MAX LOW |
| Blacksburg  |  93 in 1983  |   70 in 2020   |
| Bluefield   |  96 in 1988  |   71 in 1980   |
| Danville    | 102 in 1934  |   77 in 1920   |
| Lynchburg   | 103 in 1934  |   76 in 1937   |
| Roanoke     | 100 in 1988  |   74 in 2020   |
+=============================================+

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PH
CLIMATE...DS