007
FXUS61 KRNK 101053
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
653 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks from the Ohio Valley into Ontario today and
pushes and cold front through the region along with thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. The front becomes stationary along the
Mid Atlantic and Carolina coast with ripples of low pressure
tracking along the boundary Friday through Sunday. This will result
in typical summer temperatures and daily chances of
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Key messages:

    - No change to Heat Advisory

    - Highest confidence of thunderstorms late this afternoon

Axis of synoptic scale trough remains over the Ohio valley today and
tonight. As the surface low tracks into Ontario, the cold front
moves east, eventually becoming stationary to the upper flow. Models
have the wind shift at the surface and 850 MB, the surface pressure
rises and the sharp gradient of more stable air crossing through the
region this afternoon and evening. The best lift and opportunity for
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front will be from 18Z/2PM
through 03Z/11PM.

Pre-storm environment will have modest 0-1km and 0-3KM shear and
decent CAPES. SPC HREF even has an axis of non-zero, but still low,
STP extending into northeast Virginia. Agree that the primary threat
will be damaging wind. As a line of storms organizes east of US-29
late this afternoon, the probability increases. Plus water-loading
will likely bring down some trees. Torrential rainfall rates are
expected due to abundant moisture, as precipitable water values will
be in the 1.9 to 2.3 inch range.

Surface dew points will remain in the mid 60s to mid 70s ahead of
the front with southwest wind gusting 15 to 25 mph once mixing
begins. The heat index by this afternoon will again be around 105 in
the Virginia and North Carolina piedmont. No changes to the Heat
Advisory are planned at this time. Behind the front tonight, dew
points drop into the mid 50s to mid 60 and the wind turns to the
west and northwest. This upslope flow will bank some low clouds
along the west slopes of the central Appalachians late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
      As of 440 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Less rain Thursday

2: Continued above normal temperatures

A frontal boundary is progged to stall out in the eastern part of VA
by Thursday. This will make for a slightly drier environment on
Thursday and Friday, but temperatures will remain above normal
through the period. What this will accomplish is a slight reprieve
in shower/storm formation to end the week. Most precipitation that
forms will likely occur towards central VA and the Piedmont, closer
to the area where the stalled front will be sitting. By Friday
dewpoints will be creeping back into the upper 60s and 70s, so
expect diurnal convection to be a bit more widespread than on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is increasing for the heat and humidity to rise again
by early next week.

2) Chances of showers and thunderstorms could continue each
afternoon during this forecast period.

Although weak high pressure should spread across the Mid Atlantic on
Saturday, the air mass will not become appreciably cooler or drier.
Consequently, lingering moisture and orographical lift could spark
isolated showers and thunderstorms during Saturday afternoon. This
diurnal trend of scattered afternoon convection could continue for
the foreseeable future as the heat and humidity starts to climb
again as the flow turns toward the southwest early next week.


Highs will remain well above normal, and continued moisture
advection will lead to heat indices approaching 3 digits. It
just doesn`t look like this heat is going anywhere, anytime
soon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Monday...

Axis of synoptic scale trough remains over the Ohio valley
today and tonight. As the surface low tracks into Ontario, the
cold front moves east, eventually becoming stationary and
parallel to the upper flow. Models have the wind shift at the
surface and 850 MB, surface pressure rises and the sharp
gradient of more stable air crossing through the region this
afternoon and evening. The best chance of storms between 21Z/5PM
and 01Z/9AM. Will leave any mention out of KLWB and KBLF as a
line of storms organizes east of US-29 late this afternoon. The
ceiling and visibility with any of the storms will be MVFR.

Southwest wind gusting 15 to 25 mph once mixing begins. The
heat index by this afternoon will again be around 105 in the
Virginia and North Carolina piedmont. Behind the front tonight,
dew points drop into the mid 50s to mid 60 and the wind turns
to the west and northwest. This upslope flow will bank some MVFR
to IFR clouds along the west slopes of the central Appalachians
late tonight. WIll have these lower ceilings in at KLWB and
KBLF after 06Z.

Forecast confidence is average.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Expect the pattern to stay humid with daily chance of storms
mainly afternoon/evening through the week. IFR to MVFR fog at
night possible.

Mainly VFR outside storms and fog/low stratus mornings.

Sunday is the most likely to have no flight restrictions due to
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ033-034-043>047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ005-006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...PW/VFJ
AVIATION...AS