252
FXUS61 KRNK 110759
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
359 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall along the east coast this morning with a brief
break in humidity across the region today. The front drifts back to
the west tonight and Friday as low pressure tracks along the
boundary. This will bring widespread rain to central and eastern
Virginia and North Carolina Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

    - Increasing confidence of rain late tonight in the piedmont

    - Lower humidity today

Night fog satellite images showing scattered stratocumulus over
the western slopes of the central Appalachians early this
morning. As wind speeds diminish and the wind direction become
north and then northeast, these clouds will erode. Surface dew
points had dropped into the mid 50s to mid 60s. downslope
compression and abundant sunshine will keep maximum temperatures
slightly above normal.

Clouds will spread from east to west tonight, and deeper moisture
returns to the area by Friday morning. Western edge of the
precipitation will reach the Blue Ridge around 8AM/12Z. Increase of
clouds and surface dew points climbing back into the mid 60s to
around 70 will limit temperature drop late tonight in the foothills
and piedmont. a light and variable wind, along with a mostly clear
sky in the evening will result in a sharp temperature drop in the
river valleys of southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina.
Will be increasing the probability of precipitation after midnight,
especially east of a Lynchburg to Martinsville line.



&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and storms Friday, then mainly east of the Blue
Ridge Saturday.

2) Cooler temperatures.

Expect increasing cloud cover in easterly flow Thursday night. By
Friday, low pressure off the Carolina coast will work inland,
bringing rain and thunderstorms in from the east. The higher QPF
values look to be over eastern/coastal VA, with lesser amounts
(quarter inch to a half inch) over our VA and NC Piedmont, generally
east of a Danville to Lynchburg line. Farther west, we will see
partly to mostly cloudy skies and a lower chance for showers/storms/
measurable QPF.

Instability looks poor, and SPC only has us in general thunder.
The bigger threat will be heavy rain leading to localized flooding,
which WPC has outlined in their latest ERO. Temperatures Friday will
be in the low to mid 80s which will be a nice break from the current
heat.

The low will work up the NE coastline Friday night into Saturday as
a short wave in the vicinity of the Great Lakes moves east. Saturday
will be a bit warmer with partly sunny skies and highs in the 80s
for the mountains, and the low to mid 90s for the Piedmont. There
will still be scattered afternoon and evening convection, mainly
east of the Blue Ridge.

Confidence in the near term is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances, though drier days
look like Sunday and Monday.

2) Temperatures increase again, especially Monday through next
Wednesday, but humidity will be less of an issue.

Weak troughing aloft remains in place over the interior Mid
Atlantic, with a baroclinic zone stalled along the Atlantic coast.
This will bring periodic showers and thunderstorms, especially for
the Piedmont and along the southern/central Appalachians in the
afternoons and evenings. This will be mainly due to differential
heating and/or convergence and diurnal instability, without a lot of
synoptic support. In other words, summer convection. Sunday and
Monday look like the best bet for drier weather. The next chance for
widespread convection may come next Wednesday into Thursday as a
larger trough aloft approaches the OH Valley. This is supported by
NAEFS/GEFS outlooks, which underline the very normal weather
expected.

Sunday through next Wednesday look hot, with heat indices creeping
up around 100 or above Monday through Wednesday, which is supported
by the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails Max and Min
T. The higher heat indices will mainly be because of incoming solar
radiation, west winds, and increasing heights contributing to higher
temperatures...and less like today`s heat advisory, in which dew
points were a bigger influence.

Confidence in the long term is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Thursday...

Upslope stratocumulus with MVFR ceilings in the mountains of
Virginia and West Virginia will gradually erode with the loss of
low level moisture and as wind speeds lighten. Have KBCB and
KBLF returning to VFR before 11Z/7AM.

Mainly VFR today with the wind turning to the north then
northeast.

Forecast confidence is average.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Some sub-VFR conditions will be possible on Friday as low
pressure develops over the Carolinas. Clouds and rain will be
possible.

Scattered thunderstorms return again over the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...AMS/BMG