Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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440 FXUS61 KRNK 060834 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 434 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another very warm and humid day is in store, but temperatures and humidity lower some for the weekend. A cold front moves partially through the area today and will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the region. These continue mainly south of Highway 460 through the weekend, close to the stalled front. Heavy rain and lightning will be most likely for our North Carolina counties. The front vacillates over the area into next week, and we will see a chance for thunderstorms each day, with temperatures close to normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1. Heat Advisory issued for parts of the NC and VA Piedmont and Southside VA. Some records may be reached or broken, see Climate section below. 2. A cold front will bring drier air to the mountains beginning this afternoon, limiting showers and thunderstorms to the NC Piedmont and perhaps Pittsylvania, Charlotte, and Halifax in VA. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms were moving across our VA/NC Piedmont along a surface trough, and were remnants of a complex of storms from last night. A cold front was just to our northwest, and will move into our VA Counties around 8 AM. We may see a few showers, but most of the activity will wait until the front reaches a Boone, NC, to Martinsville, VA, to Red Hat, VA line where much juicier air will be. Short wave energy arrives in SW flow later in the afternoon and evening and will impinge on this region. PWATs over the Piedmont where storms are likely will be at least 2.10", while drier air will already be filtering into the mountains north of the front. Last night, GSP`s soundings had 2.22" PWAT, which is extremely high and above climatology. With the front mostly through our forecast area, and instability pooled mostly to our southeast, expect the main concern to be heavy rain leading to flooding along and south of the Boone to Red Hat line mentioned earlier. We already saw some instances of the last night, and with such high moisture content, slow storm motion, and recent rains to boot, it will not take much to have problems. This is supported by WPC`s Slight Risk for Excessive Rain area. Compressional warming along the front as well as high dew points and continued warmer than normal temperatures (850mb temperatures around 20C) has lead to the need for another Heat Advisory for Buckingham, Appomattox, Campbell, Halifax, Pittsylvania, and Caswell Counties from 11 AM to 8 PM today. Tonight, cooler and drier air continues to filter in, but showers may continue over NC depending on where the front stalls. Where skies clear, expect dense fog, especially in the valleys and where it rains. Confidence in the near term is moderate due to uncertainty in frontal location. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... ... As of 400 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1: Boundary keeps showers largely south of Highway 460 until Monday A stalled boundary will sit around the VA/NC border on Sunday, with drier air to the north and much moister air to the south of it. The drier air will limit the formation of showers and storms in VA, while the front will encourage them around the border and to the south of it. By Monday the front will start to wash out, allowing more moisture to slowly creep northwards. As a result, showers and storms will also spread north and impact the entire CWA on Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly above normal during this time period, with highs in the 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ... As of 420 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1: Unsettled with storms through most of the week Next week will be a fairly standard mid-July week, weatherwise. Another front will slide into the Mid-Atlantic by late Tuesday, and stall out. This will lead to scattered showers and storms to form each afternoon and evening along with diurnal heating. Generous PWATs could lead to some heavy showers, and therefore some localized flooding concerns. It will come down to what areas receive showers multiple days in a row. Steering flow is week, so storms will not be very progressive in nature, potentially pouring onto one location for extended periods of time. Temperatures will regulate a bit more towards normal for this time of year, a welcome reprieve from the recent anomalous heat. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... Areas of fog expected overnight with potential for IFR conditions in the mountains per visibility dropping below 3sm. A period of dense fog is likely in the mountain valleys and along the western slopes of the Appalachians where a layer of low level stratus may form. Any fog/stratus tonight is expected to dissipate by mid morning Saturday with return of widespread VFR Saturday afternoon. Average confidence in the above forecast. AVIATION OUTLOOK... Some lingering showers and sub-VFR possible Saturday evening in the DAN area. Fog possible through the period in the early mornings. The pattern stays unsettled such that daily chances for storms exists. Thinking mainly VFR but sub-VFR when it storms and any late night fog. Confidence is moderate for the extended aviation outlook. && .CLIMATE... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Record highs and warmest lows temperatures for July 6th. Record high minimum temperatures this morning as well as record highs this afternoon are in jeopardy in some cases. Saturday 07/06/2024 Site MaxT Year MinT Year LoMax Year HiMin Year KBLF 92 2010 44 1972 63 1972 71 1977 KDAN 102 1990 54 2014 70 1972 78 1990 KLYH 98 2010 52 2014 69 1909 74 1900 KROA 100 1999 48 1979 73 1972 74 1977 KRNK 94 2010 42 1972 65 1972 69 1932 && .EQUIPMENT... KFCX radar is running in a degraded state. The radar receiver was damaged heavy rain getting into the radome Friday afternoon. Please use surrounding radars or a radar mosaic until our equipment can be repaired. BLF ASOS...the tipping bucket failed Friday afternoon. Will await the morning Coop report from Bluefield and send a correction to Friday`s climate summary at that time. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044>047-058-059. NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SH NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...SH CLIMATE...SH EQUIPMENT...PM