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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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685 FXUS61 KRNK 191818 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 218 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled front over North Carolinas returns north tonight and Saturday. The weather pattern stays active through the beginning of next week with periods of showers and thunderstorms and gradually warming temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for showers and thunderstorms. 2) Localize heavy rainfall possible. A stalled boundary will begin to move northward tonight as a shortwave tracks over the southern Appalachian mountains. This wave will move over the forecast area overnight into Saturday. Rainfall amounts will average around a half inch areawide, but could see a few efficient storms drop 1-2 inches of rain in the vicinity of the NC/VA border. In the latest model runs, instabilities are not as high as they were with yesterday, therefore the severe threat is very low. High temperatures today will peak from the upper 70s to mid 80s With rain and thick cloud cover over the area for most of Saturday, temperatures will be 3F-5F cooler than today. Saturday high temperatures will vary from the 70s across the mountains to lower 80s in the foothills and piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 155 PM EDT Friday... Key messages: - Little change in the weather pattern Stagnant upper air pattern through the period with a long wave positively tilted trough over the eastern United States. This keeps the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas in deep southwest flow and abundant moisture. Precipitable water values will waver between 1.0 and 2.0 inches, generally as much as two standard deviations above normal. Integrated water vapor transport and synoptic scale models do not add any detail during this type of pattern. Confidence is high that there will be a daily probability of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening, as is typical. But no particular surface boundaries or guidance to narrow down to a more precise timing and location. While the potential for showers and thunderstorms covers much of the mountains, southern Virginia and northern North Carolina, the southern Blue Ridge will be the most likely location for storm development. What storms do form will have a good potential to produce very heavy rainfall rates, therefore there is a prolonged low risk of flooding. AS for as temperatures, highs will be near normal and lows will be through the period will be just above normal, mainly due to the low level moisture/mild surface dew points. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 205 PM EDT Friday... Key messages: - Chance for thunderstorms every day Similar to the shorter range of the forecast, little to no change the weather pattern is expected through Friday. Models do hint at slightly higher 500 MB heights by the end of the week. So, temperatures may warm gradually Wednesday through Friday. As the daily threat for afternoon and evening thunderstorms continues, so does the potential for locally heavy rain and isolated flooding. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday... A mid-level disturbance will track from the the southern Appalachian today to over the forecast area Saturday morning. This disturbance will push a boundary northward, increasing the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight into early Saturday afternoon. Sub- VFR conditions are likely to bounce around due to localized heavy rain, low clouds and fog. Flight restrictions should begin to improve Saturday afternoon. AVIATION OUTLOOK... An upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley and an upper level ridge in the western Atlantic will keep an active weather pattern through the beginning of next week with periods of MVFR showers and thunderstorms. Late night fog with result in IFR to MVFR visibility, otherwise VFR. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCS NEAR TERM...RCS SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...RCS