364
FXUS61 KRNK 161801
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
201 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Wednesday. A cold
front will cross the region Wednesday into Wednesday night and bring
better chances of showers and storms to the region. This front
shifts south of the area by Thursday and Friday allowing for cooler
temperatures, but the proximity of the front will keep showers and
storms in the forecast for at least southern parts of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Heat Advisory continues until 800 PM EDT for our far eastern
counties.
2. Isolated showers/storms through the evening hours before
dissipating.
3. Much better coverage of showers/storms tomorrow afternoon with
the arrival of a cold front -- locally heavy rain will be possible.

A cold front extended from the Thumb of Michigan southwest into
central Illinois and Missouri. East of this front, warm and humid
air extended east to the Atlantic Coast. Our region is included
within this airmass with a mixture of upper 60s and lower 70s dew
points across the area and temperatures a mix of the 80s over the
mountains and low to mid 90s across the Piedmont. Temperatures were
still inching upward at all locations. Our current Heat Advisory
for our far eastern counties looks on track and will continue
through 800 PM EDT. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
expected heading into the early evening hours. While all locations
may see diminishing isolated activity approaching sunset, the
eastern half of the region may see the best coverage.

Overnight, lingering high level cloudiness is expected across the
region. This will be especially true later in the night in the west
with debris cirrus advecting into the area associated with the
approaching cold front. This same cold front is expected to enter
western sections of the region Wednesday afternoon and spread
eastward. Very limited showers are expected during the morning
hours. However, from mid-day on onward, coverage will be increasing
from west to east. Precipitable Water values tomorrow afternoon are
expected to range from around 1.75 inches in the west to slightly
over 2.00 inches over eastern areas. Values around the 2.00 inch
mark fall within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year
climatology. Locally heavy rain still is looking probable with the
stronger showers and storms. Any flooding concerns would likely be
focused on any urban areas that have multiple showers/storms
crossing them in a short period of time.

For temperatures, high dew points will continue to me low
temperatures tonight will average the mid 60s west to lower 70s
east, or values that correspond to roughly five to ten degrees above
normal. On Wednesday, higher probabilities of cloud cover and
precipitation will help temperatures from climbing to values
expected today. However, values will still be on the well above
normal side for this time of year. While we are not expecting Heat
Advisory level Heat Index values within our forecast area, values
touching 100F will be possible within roughly the same location
where 105+F is expected today. There will be a greater range in high
temperatures tomorrow thanks to precipitation arriving in western
sections first. Look for a mix of upper 70s to lower 80s over
southeast West Virginia. Southwest Virginia and the Northwest
Mountains of North Carolina will see a mix of 80s with the highest
elevations in the upper 70s. Across the Piedmont of VA/NC highs
around 90 to the mid 90s are expected.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

    - Highest confidence of thunderstorms on Thursday
    - Temperatures return to normal

The cold front will continue sinking slowly into the Carolinas on
Thursday and Friday. Deep moisture and highest precipitable water
values do not get pushes all the way out of the Mid Atlantic region,
but will be confined to southern Virginia and northern North
Carolina, especially on Friday. This will be the region with the
highest probability of precipitation and potential for locally heavy
rainfall and flooding.

There will be an air mass change with the front, cloud cover, and
precipitation. 850 MB temperatures drop into the +14 to +18 range,
resulting in high temperatures near or slightly below normal for
Thursday and Friday. However, with surface dew points remaining
mainly in the 60s and 70s. The weather will remain muggy overnight
with lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 105 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

    - Wet weather pattern for the weekend
    - Gradually warming temperatures Sunday through Tuesday

Overall pattern amplifies and long wave troughing in the east. This
creates broad southwest flow across the Mid Atlantic region. At the
surface the front will stall through the weekend. Some long range
guidance was suggesting the front pushes back north for next week
but confidence is low. For now will keep the front and baroclinic
zone over the region along with a chance of thunderstorms. Clouds
and precipitation will limit daytime heating, keeping highs near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 111 PM EDT Tuesday...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected across the region during
the valid TAF forecast period concluding at 18Z/2PM EDT
Wednesday. The exceptions to VFR will be some very patchy
IFR/MVFR river valley fog late tonight. Additionally, isolated
to scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon, and
then again starting mid-day Wednesday. Look for brief sub-VFR
cigs/vsbys associated directly with this activity. Winds will
generally be light from the southwest or west through the
period with some gusts across the mountains close to 10 to 15
kts during daylight hours. Under and around any thunderstorms
wind direction will be variable with temporary gusts close to
40kts.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is high.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Probability of showers and storms increase Wednesday afternoon
and evening with the arrival and passage of a cold front.

This front will be slow to exit the region, or be positioned
just south of the area into the weekend. This will keep showers
and storms in the forecast, especially for areas near and south
of the VA/NC border.

Confidence in the extended aviation scenario is moderate.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

Temperatures may come close to record high temperatures and/or
record warm low temperatures for today, July 16.

Below is a table that lists these values for locations in our
region and the years those records were set.


************* RECORDS FOR July 16 *************
+=============================================+
|  LOCATION   | RECORD HIGH  | RECORD WARM LOW |
| Blacksburg  |  93 in 1983  |   70 in 2020    |
| Bluefield   |  96 in 1988  |   71 in 1980    |
| Danville    | 102 in 1934  |   77 in 1920    |
| Lynchburg   | 103 in 1934  |   76 in 1937    |
| Roanoke     | 100 in 1988  |   74 in 2020    |
+=============================================+

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ044>047-058-
     059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...BMG/DS