238
FXUS61 KRNK 111053
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
653 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall along the East Coast this morning with a
brief break in humidity across the region today. The front
drifts back to the west tonight and Friday as low pressure
tracks along the boundary. This will bring widespread rain to
central and eastern Virginia and North Carolina Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

    - Increasing confidence of rain late tonight in the piedmont

    - Lower humidity today

Night fog satellite images showing scattered stratocumulus over
the western slopes of the central Appalachians early this
morning. As wind speeds diminish and the wind direction become
north and then northeast, these clouds will erode. Surface dew
points had dropped into the mid 50s to mid 60s. downslope
compression and abundant sunshine will keep maximum temperatures
slightly above normal.

Clouds will spread from east to west tonight, and deeper moisture
returns to the area by Friday morning. Western edge of the
precipitation will reach the Blue Ridge around 8AM/12Z. Increase of
clouds and surface dew points climbing back into the mid 60s to
around 70 will limit temperature drop late tonight in the foothills
and piedmont. a light and variable wind, along with a mostly clear
sky in the evening will result in a sharp temperature drop in the
river valleys of southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina.
Will be increasing the probability of precipitation after midnight,
especially east of a Lynchburg to Martinsville line.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
      As of 440 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Increasing rain chances Friday move out Saturday

2: Brief cooldown

An area of low pressure currently off the southeastern Atlantic
coast will work inland across the Carolinas and Virginia on Friday.
This will work to spread some Atlantic moisture into the Mid-
Atlantic. We will see increased cloud cover on Friday, as well as
some higher precip chances. However, the more consistent and higher
rain amounts will be concentrated in the coastal regions of VA and
NC. With poor available instability, and generally weak synoptic
support, the main impact we will be looking at will be localized
heavy rain rates near the Piedmont region Friday afternoon.

As the coastal low moves further north out of our area by Saturday,
rain will largely cut off. Partly cloudy skies with a few lingering
daytime showers are expected for Saturday.

Temperatures on Friday will be held down by cloud cover and rain
showers, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Highs Friday will top
out in the low 80s, while west of the Blue Ridge (where lesser cloud
and shower coverage is expected) temperatures could get into the mid-
80s. This is a short reprieve from the recent oppressive heat, as a
clearer Saturday sky allows increased insolation to take temps back
to the upper 80s and low 90s.
clouds will erode. Surface dew
points had dropped into the mid 50s to mid 60s. downslope
compression and abundant sunshine will keep maximum temperatures
slightly above normal.

Clouds will spread from east to west tonight, and deeper moisture
returns to the area by Friday morning. Western edge of the
precipitation will reach the Blue Ridge around 8AM/12Z. Increase of
clouds and surface dew points climbing back into the mid 60s to
around 70 will limit temperature drop late tonight in the foothills
and piedmont. a light and variable wind, along with a mostly clear
sky in the evening will result in a sharp temperature drop in the
river valleys of southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina.
Will be increasing the probability of precipitation after midnight,
especially east of a Lynchburg to Martinsville line.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
      As of 500 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Drier conditions expected to start the week

2: Heat remains next week

Sunday and Monday look like the driest days of the week, with only a
slight chance of showers Monday afternoon. For the remainder of the
week, it will be largely a standard mid to late summer forecast.
High temperatures and a steady flow of moisture thanks to a
strengthening Bermuda High. Diurnal convection will crop up,
favoring mountainous areas where orographics contribute to
differential heating. With little synoptic support, these showers
and storms will mostly present a concern with the amount of rainfall
they can produce in one area. Heat indices will again approach 100F
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Thursday...

Remaining MVFR stratocumulus over southeast West Virginia will
erode quickly this morning as wind speeds stay below 10 knots
and the wind direction turns to the north then northeast.

Clouds will spread from east to west tonight, and deeper moisture
returns to the area by Friday morning. Ceilings will be VFR west
of the Blue Ridge but will lower to MVFR after 06Z/2AM in the
central and eastern Virginia and North Carolina. Expect KDAN to
be MVFR by the end of the TAF forecast period. The western edge
of the precipitation will be approaching the Blue Ridge around
8AM/12Z. For now have left precipitation out of the KDAN and
KLYH TAF forecast.

Forecast confidence is average.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Widespread sub-VFR conditions will be possible on Friday in the
foothills and piedmont as low pressure tracks north along a
stalled coastal front.

Scattered thunderstorms return again over the weekend.

Drier conditions are expected on Monday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/BMG