019
FXUS61 KRNK 151059
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
659 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will support westerly
downslope windflow for today, as well as temperatures that will
be significantly above normal. The high pressure will shift
east on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest,
resulting in increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
The front will stall across the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas
by mid-week, maintaining daily chances of rainfall into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 650 AM EDT Monday...

Minor adjustments to temperatures and cloud cover this morning
based on latest satellite trends and surface observations.
Forecast guidance suggests that mid-level clouds that developed
over the past few hours will diminish as the morning progresses.

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

1. High confidence that well above-normal temperatures will
persist through tonight, with near record high minimum
temperatures increasingly likely this morning at Roanoke.

2. Spotty & disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon and evening. Most will remain dry.

Starting the morning off with mostly clear skies as high
pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across the
Mid-Atlantic. Perhaps localized river valley fog will develop
by dawn, but given strong heating expected after sunrise, fog
will be quick to dissipate after 8 am.

Excessive heat will again be the main focus this afternoon as
west to southwesterly windflow becomes established during the
morning. The downslope wind direction, combined with abundant
sunshine and the warming effects of upper level ridging across
the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states, will support high
temperatures reaching into the upper 90s east of the Blue Ridge.
Factor in humidity, and we can expect heat index values to
range from 100 to 104 degrees. These conditions will increase
the risk of heat related illnesses this afternoon, particularly
for our vulnerable populations and those spending extended
periods of time outdoors.

Despite the downsloping winds that often suppress shower &
thunderstorm activity, strong heating will support development
of widely scattered and disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms, mainly across the mountains. This activity will
develop initially along the Blue Ridge in North Carolina into
Virginia south of Roanoke, and will then be driven by local
effects through around 7 pm, when this activity will fizzle
with loss of daytime heating. Those few locations that receive
rainfall may experience brief but heavy downpours.

For tonight, skies will become mostly clear by midnight, with
wind speeds diminishing to near-calm. Warm and muggy conditions
are again expected, with lows ranging from the mid/upper 60s
across the mountains, to the low/mid 70s east of the Blue
Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot and humid conditions on Tuesday.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day,
but the highest odds appear to be on Wednesday and Thursday.

The heat and humidity will certainly be felt across the
Piedmont on Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures in the mid
to upper 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s. Heat index values
will likely rise between 100 and 105 degrees along and east of a
line from Danville to Lynchburg. The mountains will stay cooler
but still witness heat index values in the 80s and 90s.
Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop
across the southern Blue Ridge with the highest odds of storms
in North Carolina. A cold front should cross the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday and approach the Appalachian Mountains by Wednesday
evening. It should still become hot and humid on Wednesday but a
couple degrees lower compared to Tuesday.

CAPE may climb up to 2,000 J/kg according to model soundings on
Wednesday afternoon, but the wind shear and lapse rates aloft
are lacking. Some heavy downpours may be possible from the
stronger storms given the rather moist air mass in place. The
highest chances of convection exist along and west of the Blue
Ridge on Wednesday, but those chances shift east of the Blue
Ridge by Thursday as the cold front enters the Mid Atlantic but
begins to stall. Temperatures should dip further on Thursday
with highs only climbing towards the mid 70s to the lower 90s
due to increasing cloud cover and an upper level trough
approaching from the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to occur each afternoon.

2) Temperatures will turn a little cooler to end the week.

The models are struggling to depict exactly where a cold front
will stall on Friday, but the consensus of guidance suggests the
boundary should come to a halt somewhere across North Carolina.
Moisture may return in the mountains by Saturday as a wave of
low pressure buckles the frontal boundary slightly northward.
Little change is expected in the overall synoptic pattern for
the weekend as an upper level trough remains west of the
Appalachian Mountains due to an upper level ridge over the
Atlantic Ocean blocking its progress. As a result, the chance of
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each
afternoon. However, the air mass should turn cooler compared to
earlier in the week, with high temperatures only reaching the
70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 700 AM EDT Monday...

Little change in the previous forecast philosophy, with VFR
conditions expected through the 15/12Z TAF period outside of
the widely scattered and disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity that will develop AOA 17Z. This activity will develop
initially along the crest of the Blue Ridge in North Carolina
and Virginia south of Roanoke, and will then be driven by
locally effects, impacting mainly the mountains. Did make
mention of shower activity in BLF/RNK/ROA TAFs for this
afternoon and early evening, though confidence is low. This
activity will diminish at 23Z with the loss of daytime heating.
Localized river valley fog will redevelop tonight, potentially
impacting LWB after 16/06Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Better chance SHRA/TSRA chances arrive Wednesday along with
potential sub-VFR, with shower/storm chances lingering into
Friday as the front slows/stalls.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Temperatures may come close to record high temperatures and/or
record maximum low temperatures for today, July 15, and
Tuesday, July 16. Below you will find a table that lists these
values for different locations in our region and the years those
records were set.

************* RECORDS FOR July 15 *************
+=============================================+
|  LOCATION   | RECORD HIGH  | RECORD MAX LOW |
| Blacksburg  |  99 in 1954  |   72 in 1954   |
| Bluefield   |  91 in 1951  |   72 in 1942   |
| Danville    | 104 in 1936  |   79 in 1922   |
| Lynchburg   | 101 in 1936  |   77 in 1988   |
| Roanoke     | 103 in 1936  |   74 in 1995   |
+=============================================+



************* RECORDS FOR July 16 *************
+=============================================+
|  LOCATION   | RECORD HIGH  | RECORD MAX LOW |
| Blacksburg  |  93 in 1983  |   70 in 2020   |
| Bluefield   |  96 in 1988  |   71 in 1980   |
| Danville    | 102 in 1934  |   77 in 1920   |
| Lynchburg   | 103 in 1934  |   76 in 1937   |
| Roanoke     | 100 in 1988  |   74 in 2020   |
+=============================================+

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NF/WP
CLIMATE...NF