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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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245 FXUS61 KRLX 140033 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 833 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity build into next week with increasing chances of showers and storms. A cold front on Wednesday will bring needed rainfall and finally break the heat. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 445PM Saturday... Made minor modifications to PoPs, cloud cover, and temperatures through this evening to represent the latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, with highly isolated showers or storms possible through this evening, primarily across our northern forecast zones or in the mountains. As of 1240 PM Saturday... Hot and mostly dry weather will persist the remainder of the weekend under high pressure. A stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon, mainly across northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio, as a weak upper-level shortwave tracks across northern Ohio and Pennsylvania. Higher chances for thunderstorms will be farther to the north across PBZ`s area. Expect high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon across the lowlands. The mountains can expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. There will be a bit of a `humid` feel to the air this weekend, but it shouldn`t be unbearable with dew points expected to be mostly in the mid-60s. Sunday may feel a little worse than today with `feels like temperatures` reaching the middle to upper 90s by the afternoon. Remember to stay cool, stay hydrated, and apply sunscreen during this long stretch of hot weather. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM Saturday... The region will see some influence from a trailing cold front with an area of surface pressure transiting south the James Bay Sunday night, this could help to spark a couple showers or thunderstorms across the north during the late evening and overnight. Another disturbance approaching Monday night could yield a better chance of thunderstorms across the north. This second wave could yield a better chance for some potentially strong to severe convection with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat, but better chances for severe storms may remain just north of our service area. Both of these systems, coupled with westward bulging Bermuda high pressure will yield light southwesterly flow for much of the rest of the service area yielding at least some warm and most advection. A well mixed boundary layer, suppressed evapotranspiration due to recent dryness and only weak south- southwesterly moisture advection point toward central guidance being slightly too high on dew points and slightly too low on temperatures through Monday and Tuesday. Net result will yield heat indices slightly lower than advertised by guidance, but still likely exceeding heat advisory criteria of 100 degrees on both days over much of the lower elevations. Heat highlights will likely be necessary for both days. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 PM Saturday... Cold frontal passage is expected during the day Wednesday bringing much needed rainfall to the region. While deep warm cloud depths and moisture laden profiles are in place with precipitable water values up near 1.8 inches, basin totals don`t look like they will put much of a dent in recent dryness. Localized higher amounts in slow moving or repetitive thunderstorms could yield very localized high water issues, but rainfall is expected to remain generally beneficial. The bigger story will be finally seeing more than a 2 day break (first time since June 15th in Charleston) in 90+ degree high temperatures across the lowlands with forecast highs in the 80s through the balance of the forecast. Diurnally driven isolated pop-up convection will remain possible through the balance of the week, but generally weak instability should temper any threat for stronger storms. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 830 PM Saturday... Isolated showers are possible around EKN over the next hour with dry weather expected afterwards. Patchy valley fog is expected tonight, primarily across the deeper river valleys. Restrictions due to fog are expected at EKN and could potentially occur at CRW, HTS, and PKB near dawn. Any fog that does develop will lift/dissipate by ~1230Z Sunday. This gives way to a FEW/SCT Cu field late Sunday morning and afternoon, with the potential for a highly isolated shower or storm. Light and variable or calm surface flow is expected tonight. Light WSW surface flow will develop on Sunday. Occasional breezes of 15 to 20 knots are possible during the afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog overnight may vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions could occur in isolated showers or storms Sunday afternoon/evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 07/14/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L M M L H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers and thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... As of 150 PM Saturday... A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through Tuesday. The record high temperatures for Sunday, July 14 to Tuesday, July 16 are listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current forecast values. Forecast / Record High Temperatures -------------------------------------------------------- Sunday, 7/14 | Monday, 7/15 | Tuesday, 7/16 | -------------------------------------------------------- CRW| 95 / 102 (1954)| 97 / 103 (1988)| 99 / 104 (1988) | HTS| 96 / 105 (1954)| 99 / 104 (1936)|100 / 102 (1988) | CKB| 93 / 97 (1952)| 94 / 99 (1954)| 96 / 97 (1995) | PKB| 95 / 103 (1936)| 97 / 100 (1988)| 98 / 102 (1988) | BKW| 89 / 94 (1954)| 91 / 94 (1936)| 92 / 96 (1912) | EKN| 91 / 95 (1954)| 92 / 96 (1995)| 95 / 99 (1988) | -------------------------------------------------------- && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/GW/JMC/LS NEAR TERM...GW/JMC/LS SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...GW/LS CLIMATE...JP