979
FXUS61 KRLX 140745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
345 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Building heat and humidity for the start of the week along with
daily chances for showers and storms. A cold front on Wednesday
will bring much needed rainfall and finally break the heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Patchy valley fog could form early this morning, but will dissipate
shortly after sunrise. The rest of the morning will be quiet, dry,
and mild, then temperatures rise above normal for the afternoon.
Highs are expected to reach 90s in the lowlands and upper 70s to low
90s along the mountains. Heat and humidity are expected to allow the
heat index to rise into the mid to upper 90s across the lowlands,
with a few locations in the southern lowlands potentially
approaching triple digits.

An isolated shower or storm may develop amid hot and humid
conditions, and as a shortwave passes to the north this
afternoon. Activity then remains possible - primarily across
the northern half of the forecast area - as more shortwave
energy brushes past overnight. Expect a warm and muggy feel
tonight, with low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s in
the lowlands and 60s for the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...

Key Point:

 * Hot & muggy conditions impose a heat risk for the start of
   the work week, but could be dependent upon location of
   thunderstorms in spots across SE Ohio and north-central West
   Virginia Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

 * Approaching cold front will set forth active weather late
   Tuesday night into midweek.

Building heat remains the big concern for the start of the work
week. The combination of daytime temperatures extending into
the upper 90s and rising humidity levels could foster heat index
values to climb above the triple digit mark in the lowlands
Monday afternoon.

However, cloud cover and showers/storms from shortwave energy
drifting down from the north could temper heat indices from
reaching criteria levels during that time. Given the uncertainty
of convective trends and timing, opted to hold off another
forecast cycle before deciding on heat products for the lower
elevations Monday afternoon. This challenge will once again
present itself on Tuesday.

Unsettled weather becomes more likely Tuesday evening as a cold
front tracks down from the Great Lakes region. Overnight showers
and storms will inhabit the lower Ohio Valley late Tuesday night
and spread further down into the forecast area for the finale
of the valid short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * A cold front arriving for midweek will yield measurable
   precipitation within showers and thunderstorms through late
   Thursday night.

 * Cooler temperatures in the wake of the frontal passage will
   be a welcome reprieve from the late June/early July heat
   wave.

The long term period opens up in the midst of active weather
ahead of a cold frontal passage. Ripples of shortwave energy
riding along the boundary will enhance shower and storm chances
by Wednesday afternoon and evening for both the central lowlands
and the higher terrain. Better potential for measurable
precipitation during this time should also aid in moistening the
excessively dry soil conditions currently present around the
region. QPF accumulation forecast of half an inch to an inch
seems plausible during the front`s progression through the
Central Appalachians.

The front is progged to complete its passage late Thursday
night into Friday morning. The bulk of showers and storms will
become centralized to the Carolinas for the end of the work
week, but rain could attempt to stick around for areas along the
higher terrain during diurnal heating hours for both Friday and
Saturday as the front becomes stationary within close quarters
of the southern WV coalfields.

Post-frontal northwesterly flow will invite cooler air to
invade the region on Friday into next weekend. Temperatures will
taper back down to their climatological norm for this time of
year with humidity levels also declining. This will certainly
be a welcome reprieve from the heat wave that has masked much of
the summer season so far this year.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 AM Sunday...

Calm winds and mostly clear skies are expected overnight, with a few
patches of fog possible. EKN is the most likely site to experience
IFR or worse conditions due to fog, though a couple other terminals
could also briefly dip below VFR before daybreak. Restrictions then
improve to VFR around 12Z.

A few showers and storms could develop this afternoon, though
better chances are expected across the north this evening into
tonight as a disturbance moves past. While VFR should persist
for most of the area, brief MVFR restrictions aren`t out of the
realm of possibility within precipitation. Sustained winds
should remain around 10kts or less and take on a westerly
direction during the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog tonight, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog overnight may vary from the
forecast. Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions could occur in isolated
showers or storms this afternoon/evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 07/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 345 AM Sunday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through
Tuesday. The record high temperatures for Sunday, July 14
to Tuesday, July 16 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
      Sunday, 7/14  |  Monday, 7/15  |  Tuesday, 7/16  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW| 95 / 102 (1954)| 97 / 103 (1988)| 98 / 104 (1988) |
HTS| 96 / 105 (1954)| 98 / 104 (1936)| 98 / 102 (1988) |
CKB| 93 /  97 (1952)| 94 /  99 (1954)| 95 /  97 (1995) |
PKB| 96 / 103 (1936)| 97 / 100 (1988)| 98 / 102 (1988) |
BKW| 89 /  94 (1954)| 91 /  94 (1936)| 91 /  96 (1912) |
EKN| 90 /  95 (1954)| 92 /  96 (1995)| 94 /  99 (1988) |
--------------------------------------------------------

A record high temperature of 92 degrees was tied at Elkins, WV
on Saturday. This ties the old record of 92 degrees set in 1993.

A record high temperature of 90 degrees was tied at Beckley, WV
on Saturday. This ties the old record of 90 degrees set in 1912.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...MEK/JLB