909
FXUS61 KRLX 100815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
415 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Beryl and cold front cross this morning. High
pressure Thursday through Saturday. Typical mid-summer weather
ensues next week, with mainly diurnal storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Remnants of post-tropical cyclone Beryl will continue to
move northeast across Indiana and Ohio this morning. A warm
front is draped across the northern portions of the forecast
area with a cold front over Kentucky branching off of the main
circulation of Beryl. Showers and thunderstorms are spawning in
the warm sector and will continue to do so through the morning.

While the most concerning of storms and the heaviest of rain
will stay to our west, there is still a marginal risk for severe
storms and excessive rainfall across portions of southeast
Ohio, northeast Kentucky and the Tri-State Area this morning.
Damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat will be the main
concerns.

Cold front looks to arrive to the forecast area by sunrise, with
a few showers/storms still continuing across the aforementioned
area. This activity will shift along the mountains by afternoon
as the front starts to exit eastward. Models are starting to
keep most of the area dry from later this morning into the
afternoon; even the more bullish convective models are more
hesitant to keep PoPs around into the afternoon. Most likely due
to anticipated dry slotting this morning and the front moving
out this afternoon. As mentioned, most of the higher chances for
precipitation will remain across the mountains this afternoon.
SPC has general thunderstorm probabilities for today across the
northern lowlands and the mountains.

A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is clipping Randolph and
Pocahontas counties today, but most of the QPF guidance keeps
the heaviest rain to our east. Will still need to keep an eye
out with any heavy downpours that occur.

Another hot and sultry day is expected today, though
temperatures will be less warm compared to previous days. The
lowlands can expect highs in the 80s to around 90, while the
mountains will range between the mid 70s to the mid 80s.
Temperatures will be less warm across southeast Ohio, northeast
Kentucky and the Tri-State Area as cloud cover and remnant
moisture will inhibit temperatures from rising too much.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...

High pressure builds into the area Thursday, then breaks down as an
inverted trough forms in response to a mid/upper-level short
wave trough Friday, and then builds back in in its wake Friday
night. The short wave and inverted surface trough may be just
enough impetus for an afternoon pop-up shower or thunderstorm in
the mountains Friday afternoon.

Otherwise, the weather will be dry, and mainly clear, calm
conditions may allow overnight valley fog formation Thursday
and Friday nights.

Near normal temperatures Thursday and Thursday night give way to
above normal temperatures Friday and Friday night. This
includes lowland highs back up into the lower 90s on Friday, but
humidity will still be manageably low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday...

High pressure Saturday gives way to low level southwest flow
beneath mid/upper-level west-northwest flow Sunday, and this set
up continues into the next work week. The low level flow will be
most pronounced beneath mid/upper-level short waves crossing,
which may be almost daily.

The WV northern mountains may see a few showers and a
thunderstorm Saturday afternoon, but the chance is rather
low, as the bulk of the moisture resides farther east.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms expands out across the
area Sunday, but should remain low Sunday and Monday, with
timing tied to diurnal heating, and timing of the multiple
short wave troughs moving through. Higher PoPs may eventually be
needed as timing is refined, but the current forecast does
reflect PoPs increasing toward midweek, with the amplification
of long wave troughing in the east, and ridging out over the
Rockies and plains.

Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures near the
south-southwest edge of the southern stream, including hot
afternoons with lowland highs in the mid 90s common, and
increasing humidity that will also contribute to the increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms toward midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

Isolated showers and storms remain possible this morning as a
system grazes us, but ultimately passing to the west. Higher
chances for activity will be situated along the Ohio River and
points west. This could affect HTS and PKB early this morning.

More showers and storms are expected with the passage of a cold
front during the day. While much of the area should experience
VFR conditions during the TAF period, occasional MVFR/IFR
restrictions could occur in any rain and storms.

Winds will be light and variable this morning, then increase
after sunrise. South to southwest winds are then expected today,
with 20-30kt gusts possible through the majority of the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers/thunderstorms
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 07/10/24
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...LTC