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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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957 FXUS61 KRLX 101025 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 625 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Beryl and cold front cross this morning. High pressure Thursday through Saturday. Typical mid-summer weather ensues next week, with mainly diurnal storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 605 AM Wednesday... Cold front is knocking on our door with a few showers popping up across southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and the Tri-State Area this morning. A few heavier showers are being observed across Perry and Vinton Counties in Ohio, but currently not seeing anything of concern. Guidance is really starting to back off on precipitation across the area later this morning. Most of the convective-allowing models such as the HREF, HRRR and the RAP keep the area mostly dry through the day, but opted to use a blend which keeps some chance PoPs in the mountains. This seems more probable, especially given the forcing from the front which will cross that area later this morning. As of 315 AM Wednesday... Remnants of post-tropical cyclone Beryl will continue to move northeast across Indiana and Ohio this morning. A warm front is draped across the northern portions of the forecast area with a cold front over Kentucky branching off of the main circulation of Beryl. Showers and thunderstorms are spawning in the warm sector and will continue to do so through the morning. While the most concerning of storms and the heaviest of rain will stay to our west, there is still a marginal risk for severe storms and excessive rainfall across portions of southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and the Tri-State Area this morning. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat will be the main concerns. Cold front looks to arrive to the forecast area by sunrise, with a few showers/storms still continuing across the aforementioned area. This activity will shift along the mountains by afternoon as the front starts to exit eastward. Models are starting to keep most of the area dry from later this morning into the afternoon; even the more bullish convective models are more hesitant to keep PoPs around into the afternoon. Most likely due to anticipated dry slotting this morning and the front moving out this afternoon. As mentioned, most of the higher chances for precipitation will remain across the mountains this afternoon. SPC has general thunderstorm probabilities for today across the northern lowlands and the mountains. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is clipping Randolph and Pocahontas counties today, but most of the QPF guidance keeps the heaviest rain to our east. Will still need to keep an eye out with any heavy downpours that occur. Another hot and sultry day is expected today, though temperatures will be less warm compared to previous days. The lowlands can expect highs in the 80s to around 90, while the mountains will range between the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Temperatures will be less warm across southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and the Tri-State Area as cloud cover and remnant moisture will inhibit temperatures from rising too much. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM Wednesday... High pressure builds into the area Thursday, then breaks down as an inverted trough forms in response to a mid/upper-level short wave trough Friday, and then builds back in in its wake Friday night. The short wave and inverted surface trough may be just enough impetus for an afternoon pop-up shower or thunderstorm in the mountains Friday afternoon. Otherwise, the weather will be dry, and mainly clear, calm conditions may allow overnight valley fog formation Thursday and Friday nights. Near normal temperatures Thursday and Thursday night give way to above normal temperatures Friday and Friday night. This includes lowland highs back up into the lower 90s on Friday, but humidity will still be manageably low. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM Wednesday... High pressure Saturday gives way to low level southwest flow beneath mid/upper-level west-northwest flow Sunday, and this set up continues into the next work week. The low level flow will be most pronounced beneath mid/upper-level short waves crossing, which may be almost daily. The WV northern mountains may see a few showers and a thunderstorm Saturday afternoon, but the chance is rather low, as the bulk of the moisture resides farther east. The chance for showers and thunderstorms expands out across the area Sunday, but should remain low Sunday and Monday, with timing tied to diurnal heating, and timing of the multiple short wave troughs moving through. Higher PoPs may eventually be needed as timing is refined, but the current forecast does reflect PoPs increasing toward midweek, with the amplification of long wave troughing in the east, and ridging out over the Rockies and plains. Central guidance reflects above normal temperatures near the south-southwest edge of the southern stream, including hot afternoons with lowland highs in the mid 90s common, and increasing humidity that will also contribute to the increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms toward midweek. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 620 AM Wednesday... A cold front is currently moving into the forecast area this morning, aided by remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Some showers have spawned across KY and OH and could affect HTS and PKB. The chances for showers/thunderstorms will shift along the mountains later this morning into the early afternoon, but most terminals look to escape restrictions; EKN being the most likely of all to see any form of restrictions. Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions could occur in any showers and storms today. Winds will be light and variable early this morning. South to southwest winds are then expected today,after ~12z with 20-30kt gusts possible through the majority of the day in the wake of the FROPA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers/thunderstorms may vary from the forecast today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC NEAR TERM...LTC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...LTC