846
FXUS61 KRLX 101512
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1112 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Beryl and cold front cross this morning. High
pressure Thursday through Saturday. Typical mid-summer weather
ensues next week, with mainly afternoon/evening storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 840 AM Wednesday...

Have updated the forecast to allow for chances of showers this
morning along the cold front in West Virginia based on latest
radar trends.


As of 605 AM Wednesday...

Cold front is knocking on our door with a few showers popping
up across southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and the Tri-State
Area this morning. A few heavier showers are being observed
across Perry and Vinton Counties in Ohio, but currently not
seeing anything of concern.

Guidance is really starting to back off on precipitation across
the area later this morning. Most of the convective-allowing
models such as the HREF, HRRR and the RAP keep the area mostly
dry through the day, but opted to use a blend which keeps some
chance PoPs in the mountains. This seems more probable,
especially given the forcing from the front which will cross
that area later this morning.

As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Remnants of post-tropical cyclone Beryl will continue to
move northeast across Indiana and Ohio this morning. A warm
front is draped across the northern portions of the forecast
area with a cold front over Kentucky branching off of the main
circulation of Beryl. Showers and thunderstorms are spawning in
the warm sector and will continue to do so through the morning.

While the most concerning of storms and the heaviest of rain
will stay to our west, there is still a marginal risk for severe
storms and excessive rainfall across portions of southeast
Ohio, northeast Kentucky and the Tri-State Area this morning.
Damaging winds and an isolated tornado threat will be the main
concerns.

Cold front looks to arrive to the forecast area by sunrise, with
a few showers/storms still continuing across the aforementioned
area. This activity will shift along the mountains by afternoon
as the front starts to exit eastward. Models are starting to
keep most of the area dry from later this morning into the
afternoon; even the more bullish convective models are more
hesitant to keep PoPs around into the afternoon. Most likely due
to anticipated dry slotting this morning and the front moving
out this afternoon. As mentioned, most of the higher chances for
precipitation will remain across the mountains this afternoon.
SPC has general thunderstorm probabilities for today across the
northern lowlands and the mountains.

A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is clipping Randolph and
Pocahontas counties today, but most of the QPF guidance keeps
the heaviest rain to our east. Will still need to keep an eye
out with any heavy downpours that occur.

Another hot and sultry day is expected today, though
temperatures will be less warm compared to previous days. The
lowlands can expect highs in the 80s to around 90, while the
mountains will range between the mid 70s to the mid 80s.
Temperatures will be less warm across southeast Ohio, northeast
Kentucky and the Tri-State Area as cloud cover and remnant
moisture will inhibit temperatures from rising too much.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1108 AM Wednesday...

Key Point:

* The heat will return on Friday under mostly dry conditions.

The cooler spell expected on Thursday will be short lived, as the
90s are expected to return across the lowlands on Friday. Bermuda
high pressure over the Atlantic will strengthen and expand over the
eastern seaboard Friday, causing 500-mb heights to rise over our
region. This will lead to the aforementioned warm up. The only
chance of rain Friday will be over the northern mountains, and it
will be a small chance because most of the upper-level energy
and moisture will be east of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1109 AM Wednesday...

* The best chance of rain this weekend will be Sunday afternoon
  and evening, but it will be a small chance, and most places
  will remain dry.

* Another potential heat wave looks likely next week with daily
  chances of showers and thunderstorms.

A hot and mostly rain-free weekend is on the way with temperatures
expected to reach the middle 90s across the lowlands and the upper
80s to lower 90s in the mountains. Weak vorticity aloft may trigger
a spotty thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening, but the chance
seems small at this time.

By Monday, the center of the upper-level ridge will be strengthening
over the Central U.S. and rounds of vorticity will stream into our
direction from the northwest, which will keep our weather unsettled
into the early part of next week. Expect more unseasonably hot
weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will
once again reach the middle to upper 90s across the lowlands each
afternoon through midweek as the upper-level ridge expands, and we
will once again have to remember to practice heat safety. The next
potential front bringing relief may not arrive until next Thursday
or Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM Wednesday...

A cold front is currently moving into the forecast area this
morning, aided by remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl. Some
showers have spawned across KY and OH and could affect HTS and
PKB.

The chances for showers/thunderstorms will shift along the
mountains later this morning into the early afternoon, but most
terminals look to escape restrictions; EKN being the most likely
of all to see any form of restrictions. Brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions could occur in any showers and storms today.

Winds will be light and variable early this morning. South to
southwest winds are then expected today,after ~12z with 20-30kt
gusts possible through the majority of the day in the wake of
the FROPA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers/thunderstorms
may vary from the forecast today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC/JMC