954
FXUS61 KRLX 102003
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
403 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants of Beryl pull off to the north this evening. High
pressure Thursday through Saturday. Typical mid-summer weather
ensues next week, with mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM Wednesday...

Post-frontal mixing this afternoon in association with the
remnants of Beryl has resulted in wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph
across the region, with isolated higher gusts in excess of 45
mph. Gusty conditions are expected through early this evening,
gradually dissipating thereafter. An SPS has been issued for the
central/northern CWA through early this evening to highlight
the gusty wind potential. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 140 PM Wednesday...

The remnants of Beryl will pull off to the north this evening.
Some showers could linger into this evening before dissipating.
Northwest winds could keep some clouds over the upslope areas of
northeastern West Virginia tonight. A high pressure system will
build in overnight, allowing for winds to go light in southwestern
West Virginia, northeastern Kentucky, and southwestern Virginia.
This could allow for some river valley fog to form in that area.

The high will then provide dry weather for Thursday with
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1108 AM Wednesday...

Key Point:

* The heat will return on Friday under mostly dry conditions.

The cooler spell expected on Thursday will be short lived, as the
90s are expected to return across the lowlands on Friday. Bermuda
high pressure over the Atlantic will strengthen and expand over the
eastern seaboard Friday, causing 500-mb heights to rise over our
region. This will lead to the aforementioned warm up. The only
chance of rain Friday will be over the northern mountains, and it
will be a small chance because most of the upper-level energy
and moisture will be east of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1109 AM Wednesday...

* The best chance of rain this weekend will be Sunday afternoon
  and evening, but it will be a small chance, and most places
  will remain dry.

* Another potential heat wave looks likely next week with daily
  chances of showers and thunderstorms.

A hot and mostly rain-free weekend is on the way with temperatures
expected to reach the middle 90s across the lowlands and the upper
80s to lower 90s in the mountains. Weak vorticity aloft may trigger
a spotty thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening, but the chance
seems small at this time.

By Monday, the center of the upper-level ridge will be strengthening
over the Central U.S. and rounds of vorticity will stream into our
direction from the northwest, which will keep our weather unsettled
into the early part of next week. Expect more unseasonably hot
weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will
once again reach the middle to upper 90s across the lowlands each
afternoon through midweek as the upper-level ridge expands, and we
will once again have to remember to practice heat safety. The next
potential front bringing relief may not arrive until next Thursday
or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

A few showers are possible through this evening. Some clouds
overnight over northeastern West Virginia could cause MVFR
restrictions. In addition, some river valley fog could form over
northeastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, and southwestern
Virginia.

After any early morning fog burns off and clouds over
northeastern West Virginia lift, VFR conditions can then be
expected through Thursday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Showers this afternoon could cause brief
restrictions. Timing and density of fog could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/GW/JMC/NS
NEAR TERM...RPY/GW/NS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...RPY