836
FXUS61 KRLX 110639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
239 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today through Saturday provides mainly dry
weather. Typical mid-summer weather ensues next week, with
mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 234 AM Thursday...

Lingering showers in the mountains have all but dissipated at
this hour as a cold front sits to our east and Post-Tropical
Cyclone Beryl`s remnants move off to the northeast over Lake
Erie.

Dry conditions are then expected for this near term period with
high pressure filling in the gap this morning. A few clouds
will move over this morning with MesoNAM soundings suggesting
some lower stratus clouds across the northern mountains. Some
patchy river valley fog also looks possible, mostly across the
southern half of the forecast area, due to decoupling from high
pressure. Fog could be locally dense, but will clear up after
sunrise.

Westerly to west-southwesterly flow will continue to slack off
this morning with a few locations going completely calm with
high pressure moving in. Surface flow shifts more northwesterly
during the day today remaining light, but could be breezy at
times across the higher ridges of the mountains.

Low temperatures will be below normal this morning and again
Thursday into Friday with low to mid 60s across the lowlands and
the mountains ranging between mid 50s and lower 60s. High
temperatures will be around to slightly above normal today with
the lowlands sitting in the mid to high 80s and the mountains
ranging from the low 70s to the lower 80s.

Dew points will be a bit more bearable than previous
days with mid 50s to low 60s expected across our area this
afternoon. This will make for comfortable RH percentages in the
40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1108 AM Wednesday...

Key Point:

* The heat will return on Friday under mostly dry conditions.

The cooler spell expected on Thursday will be short lived, as the
90s are expected to return across the lowlands on Friday. Bermuda
high pressure over the Atlantic will strengthen and expand over the
eastern seaboard Friday, causing 500-mb heights to rise over our
region. This will lead to the aforementioned warm up. The only
chance of rain Friday will be over the northern mountains, and it
will be a small chance because most of the upper-level energy
and moisture will be east of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1109 AM Wednesday...

* The best chance of rain this weekend will be Sunday afternoon
  and evening, but it will be a small chance, and most places
  will remain dry.

* Another potential heat wave looks likely next week with daily
  chances of showers and thunderstorms.

A hot and mostly rain-free weekend is on the way with temperatures
expected to reach the middle 90s across the lowlands and the upper
80s to lower 90s in the mountains. Weak vorticity aloft may trigger
a spotty thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening, but the chance
seems small at this time.

By Monday, the center of the upper-level ridge will be strengthening
over the Central U.S. and rounds of vorticity will stream into our
direction from the northwest, which will keep our weather unsettled
into the early part of next week. Expect more unseasonably hot
weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Highs will
once again reach the middle to upper 90s across the lowlands each
afternoon through midweek as the upper-level ridge expands, and we
will once again have to remember to practice heat safety. The next
potential front bringing relief may not arrive until next Thursday
or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

Showers continue to dissipate in the mountains this morning.
Patchy dense fog looks to form across the southern half of the
forecast area, possibly affecting CRW. This will mainly be
confined to the river valleys and areas that saw precipitation
yesterday. Soundings suggest low stratus will be more probable
in the northern mountains which affects EKN. IFR restrictions
or lower are possible in fog and low stratus. Otherwise, a few
low to mid level clouds will move across the area tonight.

VFR takes back over after ~13z this morning, but some lingering
low clouds along the mountains are certainly possible until the
afternoon. Expecting afternoon Cu formation later this morning
into the afternoon.

WSW to W surface flow is expected tonight. Winds could be gusty
early, but will be relaxing throughout morning hours. W to WSW flow
picks up at dawn but will be shifting NW during the day with
light speeds expected.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog and low stratus, high
otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of fog and low stratus
overnight could vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 07/11/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC