773
FXUS61 KRLX 111700
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
100 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure prevails through Saturday, providing mainly dry
and warm weather. A more active weather summer pattern ensues
next week, with potential storm complexes amid heat and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1256 PM Thursday...

Dry conditions will prevail under the influence of a surface high
pressure. Few to scattered afternoon cu, evident on satellite
imagery, will dissipate by sunset, leading to a mostly clear sky
for tonight into Friday.

Guidance suggests some patchy river valley fog developing, mostly
across the southern half of the forecast area, due to decoupling
from high pressure. Fog could be locally dense, but will clear up
by sunrise.

Light southerly winds will become calm tonight, and then light and
variable on Friday, but could be breezy during the afternoon hours
across the higher ridges of the mountains.

Tonight, near normal temperatures are expected, generally in the low
to mid 60s across the lowlands, and ranging between mid 50s and
lower 60s across the higher elevations. A gradual warming trend
starts on Friday with highs in the low to mid 90s across the
lowlands, and into the mid 70s northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure gives way to an upper level short wave
which will slide through the area on Saturday. This wave will
add lift to help diurnal convection along the mountains
which will likely ignite from the elevated heat effect.
Elsewhere should remain dry although a few drops out of
afternoon convection could make it into other areas near the
mountains. Temperatures will continue to be in a warming trend
with much of the area well above seasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Thursday...

High surface pressure remains in place for Sunday although
another very small short wave aloft will create the possibility
for some diurnal activity across much of the area. Monday
should be protected by high pressure for most of the time
although another disturbance from the northwest will push closer
to the area and start to spread chances of precipitation in
from the north later in the day.

Models are very divergent on this solution, therefore went
mostly with blended model guidance. By Tuesday, the same
disturbance will advect in a frontal boundary which will likely
stick around as a semi-stationary boundary through the rest of
this period as models hint. Even though they are divergent
still, they do come together by Wednesday, therefore accepted
central guidance and capped all precipitation and thunder
probability to 50% for the very end of this period.

A warming trend will continue for much of this period with heat
indexes rising to the low triple digits for much of the
lowlands on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will then dip down
on Thursday where they are forecast to be slightly below normal
for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Thursday...

GOES-16 visible satellite shows defined river fog signatures
across the southern mountains and lowlands of WV, as well as
down into the mountains of southwest VA and eastern KY. Low
stratus has also formed across the northern mountains of WV. No
sites are currently experiencing restrictions, but MVFR/IFR
restrictions are possible within dense fog and low clouds.

VFR takes back over by ~13z-14z this morning as only expecting
afternoon Cu formation later this morning into the afternoon
with CIGs gradually lifting throughout the day.

W to WSW flow picks up this morning, but will be shifting NNW
during the next few hours with light speeds expected. The higher
ridges across the mountains could be breezy at times this
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...LTC