315
FXUS61 KRLX 121653
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1253 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the area remains dry through Saturday. A more active
weather summer pattern ensues next week, with potential storm
complexes amid heat and humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1251 PM Friday...

Satellite imagery showing weak convection along the eastern
mountains early this afternoon. Expect few showers or storms
to develop this afternoon along the mountains. Any precipitation
activity will quickly dissipate around sunset. Rest of forecast
remains on track.

As of 540 AM Friday...

Patches of valley fog which have been developing across portions of
the area will dissipate after the sun rises this morning. The
current forecast continues on track without significant changes
needed at this time.

As of 150 AM Friday...

One shortwave is expected to swing by to the northwest while another
eases along the Atlantic coast. Hot and dry conditions should
prevail for the majority of the lowlands between these two
waves, while daytime heating and moisture seeping in along and
near the mountains is expected to support a few afternoon
showers and storms. Activity wanes after sundown and then quieter
conditions persist for tonight.

Temperatures will be rather warm this afternoon, with highs expected
to reach 70s to mid 80s along the mountains and upper 80s to low 90s
in the lowlands. Low for tonight should then range from low to mid
60s in the mountains to mid to upper 60s in the lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Mostly dry weather continues for the Central Appalachians at the
start of the weekend as a coastal system keeps shower and storm
chances well east of the mountains. Building heat will be the
main concern within our forecast domain during the weekend
timeframe, with afternoon heat index values sneaking up into the
mid to upper 90s across the Charleston and Huntington metro
areas.

A disturbance pivoting across the Great Lakes region may supply
some beneficial rain potential Sunday afternoon, but how far
south and east of the Ohio River remains up in the air as the
main source of moisture will be well north of the forecast area.
Current thinking is a slight chance of showers/storms for
locations north of the I-64 corridor.

Heat concerns increase into the start of the new work week as
low level moisture yields higher humidity levels. This may
promote heat index values stemming into the triple digit mark
Monday afternoon in the lower elevations, potentially warranting
an advisory. Will continue to promote this within the HWO.
Chances for rain on Monday remain low as the aforementioned
disturbance presses east into New England.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

Ongoing warm spell shows no signs of letting up on Tuesday,
under hot and muggy temperatures with no sign of reprieve from
precipitation.

Unsettled weather becomes more probably around midweek in
response to a front draping down from the northwest. Showers,
and possible thunderstorms, aligned along the boundary will
present itself starting Wednesday morning and continue into
Thursday night. Models depict rainfall accumulations of half an
inch to an inch, which should help chip away at the drought
conditions residing over the region. This front will also lead
to a bit of a cool down in the wake of its passage, relieving
the area of the humidity for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 540 AM Friday...

Patchy valley fog will dissipate within the first couple hours of
the TAF period, then VFR is expected across the area for the rest of
the morning. While tranquil conditions are expected to persist for
the lowland terminals, sporadic MVFR restrictions could be
possible in showers and storms along and near the mountains this
afternoon.

Light and variable winds are expected through the day, then winds
once again become calm to light overnight. Patchy fog could again be
possible once winds calm and skies begin to clear overnight. VFR
should prevail outside of any fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/extent of showers and storms this
afternoon may vary. Extent/intensity of fog tonight may also
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB