636
FXUS61 KRLX 121757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
157 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the area remains dry through Saturday. A more active
weather summer pattern ensues next week, with potential storm
complexes amid heat and humidity. Cold frontal passage Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...

Surface high pressure will provide mostly dry weather conditions
tonight and Saturday. The exception will be during the afternoon
hours along the eastern mountains where isolated showers or storms
may develop due to heating and orographic effects. Any convection
that manage to develop will quickly dissipate by sunset.

Tonight`s lows will range from the mid to upper 60s across the
lowlands, to the lower 60s over the northeast mountains. Will
deviate from NBM solution which brings widespread dense fog
overnight tonight. Despite of calm flow and mostly clear skies,
believe it will be warm and dry enough to prevent dense fog from
developing. With no changes in the environment compared with
last night, recurred to persistence forecast for tonight, and
diminished the area suggested to the very isolated protected
river valleys.

Abundant low level moisture, plenty of sunshine and near calm flow
will allow for heat to build up across the area Saturday
afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 90s across the lowlands,
ranging into the upper 70s over the northeast mountains. Heat
index values should stay in the mid 90s across the lowlands
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

An upper level disturbance will be passing through the area on
Sunday which will promote the possibility of a shower or storm,
mainly in the afternoon into evening time frame. Weak surface
high pressure overhead will suppress most activity, if any,
however will also elevate temperatures to well above seasonable
creating the likelihood of a heat advisory across the lowlands
with temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 90`s.
Dewpoints will continue to rise throughout the period
increasing heat indexes to mid to upper 90`s, even low 100`s in
certain places.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

The rest of Monday and Tuesday, the hottest days in the forecast,
will be relatively dry with surface high pressure ramping up
the heat trend. We cannot rule out an afternoon shower or storm
virtually anywhere, but for the most part any activity will be
light in nature and heat headlines will likely be needed across
the lowlands for both days with some areas reaching the 100
degree mark for temperature during both days, especially around
the Tri-state and Capital area.

The heat continues into midweek when a cold front will approach
the are from the northwest. This will increase the chances for
shower and thunderstorm activity, especially during diurnal
heating. Frontal passage will take place between late Wednesday
into Thursday at which point temperatures will drop down to
below average to give the area some reprieve.

It was thought and hinted by models during yesterdays runs that this
frontal boundary may get caught up and stall a bit before exiting
the region. This does not seem the case anymore with long rang
models GFS and Canadian NH producing strong high pressure
building in from the north pushing the boundary through quicker
this time around. The EURO doesn`t agree and has a short wave
that will drag its exit out longer than the other models have.

For this reason, elected to accept central guidance and kept
high end chances through Thursday afternoon then tapered
chances down to hardly anything through the rest of this period
ending with a relatively quiet Friday. The boundary, even though
it takes its time to pass through, will not likely cause too
many hydro issues, but localized low lying or flood prone areas
will need to be watched during frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions to prevail through the period.
Deviated from general guidance suggesting widespread dense fog.
Believe it will be warm and dry enough to prevent fog from
developing. Expecting only few protected river valleys to fog,
such as EKN, staying away from affecting other terminals
overnight tonight.

Widespread VFR conditions will continue for Saturday.

Light and variable winds will become calm late this evening.
Winds becoming light and variable for Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/extent of showers and storms this
afternoon may vary. Extent/intensity of fog tonight may also
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JLB