079
FXUS61 KRLX 130609
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
209 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the area remains dry today. A more active weather
summer pattern ensues next week, with potential storm complexes
amid heat and humidity. Cold frontal passage Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Saturday...

Dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the forecast
area today, though a combination of daytime heating, increasing
humidity, and passing shortwave energy could facilitate the
development of isolated afternoon showers or storms mainly in
the western part of the CWA. Any activity should then taper off
toward sundown, resulting in yet another calm and quiet night.

Afternoon highs are expected to reach low to mid 90s in the lowlands
and upper 70s to 80s along the mountains. Hot temperatures combined
with humidity should make it feel more like mid to upper 90s in
the lowlands. Temperatures remain mild tonight, with lows
ranging from mid 60s to low 70s in the lowlands and low to mid
60s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

An upper level disturbance will be passing through the area on
Sunday which will promote the possibility of a shower or storm,
mainly in the afternoon into evening time frame. Weak surface
high pressure overhead will suppress most activity, if any,
however will also elevate temperatures to well above seasonable
creating the likelihood of a heat advisory across the lowlands
with temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 90`s.
Dewpoints will continue to rise throughout the period
increasing heat indexes to mid to upper 90`s, even low 100`s in
certain places.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Friday...

The rest of Monday and Tuesday, the hottest days in the forecast,
will be relatively dry with surface high pressure ramping up
the heat trend. We cannot rule out an afternoon shower or storm
virtually anywhere, but for the most part any activity will be
light in nature and heat headlines will likely be needed across
the lowlands for both days with some areas reaching the 100
degree mark for temperature during both days, especially around
the Tri-state and Capital area.

The heat continues into midweek when a cold front will approach
the are from the northwest. This will increase the chances for
shower and thunderstorm activity, especially during diurnal
heating. Frontal passage will take place between late Wednesday
into Thursday at which point temperatures will drop down to
below average to give the area some reprieve.

It was thought and hinted by models during yesterdays runs that this
frontal boundary may get caught up and stall a bit before exiting
the region. This does not seem the case anymore with long rang
models GFS and Canadian NH producing strong high pressure
building in from the north pushing the boundary through quicker
this time around. The EURO doesn`t agree and has a short wave
that will drag its exit out longer than the other models have.

For this reason, elected to accept central guidance and kept
high end chances through Thursday afternoon then tapered
chances down to hardly anything through the rest of this period
ending with a relatively quiet Friday. The boundary, even though
it takes its time to pass through, will not likely cause too
many hydro issues, but localized low lying or flood prone areas
will need to be watched during frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

A few patches of fog could form within the forecast area overnight,
though VFR conditions are expected to persist at most, if not
all, of the TAF sites. Similar to yesterday, a few showers or
storms could pop up during the afternoon; however, have left out
mention in this TAF package given the limited precipitation
coverage and low confidence that storms would impact any of the
terminals.

Winds remain calm to light into the morning, then become light and
variable during the day before calming again after sundown.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not affect TAF sites late
tonight. An isolated shower/storm could impact one or two
terminals in the afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 07/13/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 914 PM Friday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through Tuesday, with
temperatures forecast to approach record highs at a few locations. The
record high temperatures for Saturday, July 13 to Tuesday, July 16 are
listed below for our official climate sites, along with the current
forecast values.

                   Forecast / Record High Temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Saturday, 7/13 |  Sunday, 7/14  |  Monday, 7/15  |  Tuesday, 7/16  |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW| 93 / 103 (1929)| 95 / 102 (1954)| 98 / 103 (1988)| 98 / 104 (1988) |
HTS| 94 / 104 (1914)| 95 / 105 (1954)| 98 / 104 (1936)| 99 / 102 (1988) |
CKB| 91 /  98 (1936)| 92 /  97 (1952)| 94 /  99 (1954)| 97 /  97 (1995) |
PKB| 93 /  97 (1954)| 95 / 103 (1936)| 97 / 100 (1988)| 98 / 102 (1988) |
BKW| 88 /  90 (1954)| 88 /  94 (1954)| 92 /  94 (1936)| 92 /  96 (1912) |
EKN| 90 /  92 (1993)| 91 /  95 (1954)| 92 /  96 (1995)| 94 /  99 (1988) |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...