137
FXUS61 KRLX 130947
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
547 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the area remains dry today. A more active weather
summer pattern ensues next week, with potential storm complexes
amid heat and humidity. Cold frontal passage Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 545 AM Saturday...

The current forecast is on track this morning. No significant
changes are needed at this time.

As of 200 AM Saturday...

Dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the forecast
area today, though a combination of daytime heating, increasing
humidity, and passing shortwave energy could facilitate the
development of isolated afternoon showers or storms mainly in
the western part of the CWA. Any activity should then taper off
toward sundown, resulting in yet another calm and quiet night.

Afternoon highs are expected to reach low to mid 90s in the lowlands
and upper 70s to 80s along the mountains. Hot temperatures combined
with humidity should make it feel more like mid to upper 90s in
the lowlands. Temperatures remain mild tonight, with lows
ranging from mid 60s to low 70s in the lowlands and low to mid
60s along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Heat index values continue to rise into the start of the
   week, with many spots in the lowlands stretching into the
   triple digit mark.

 * A northern stream disturbance brings light rain to parts of
   the forecast area overnight Sunday into Monday.

Surface high pressure nestled over the area at the start of the
forecast period will continue to advertise not only dry weather,
but a warming pattern under a rising height pattern. An uptick
in low level moisture will be instigated by a southerly wind
shift, attracting warm Gulf moisture up into the region. This
sets the stage for the return of rising humidity and growing
concern in regards to heat indices. Apparent temperature
readings in the upper 90s will be observed by peaking heating
hours Sunday afternoon, especially from the Charleston metro
area and west into the Tri-State area.

A passing northern stream disturbance encroaches the Ohio Valley
late Sunday afternoon and may douse parts of our forecast area
with much needed rain by the evening and overnight periods.
Anticipated rainfall amounts do not look to extinguish the
drought conditions we are currently facing in this very dry
summer pattern, but will be a brief reprieve from this ongoing
dry spell for north-central West Virginia and southeast Ohio.

The new work week opens up with lingering showers as the
disturbance streams through the Great Lakes region. However, the
bigger story will continue to be the dangerous heat index values
that ramp up for Monday afternoon. Areas across the central
lowlands and along the Ohio River Valley are projected to reach
heat indices of 100-102 degrees during that time, imposing
concerns for dangerous heat impacts in the event of long
duration exposure outside. Will continue to highlight the
Monday, and even Tuesday, heat wave in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Dangerous heat continues across the Central Appalachians on
   Tuesday, with heat indices once again extending above 100
   degrees.

 * A cold front brings beneficial rain from showers and storms
   by midweek as well as a cool down for the latter half of the
   week.

Little to no changes in the upper level pattern will sustain the
local heat wave present in the lower elevations and WV foothills
once again on Tuesday afternoon. We can once again expect heat
index values extending up into the triple digits for the vase
majority of the forecast area.

A welcome reprieve from the heat will arrive around midweek in
the form of a cold front diving down from the Upper Midwest.
This boundary will also supply the region with the best
potential for beneficial rainfall for the week, arriving Tuesday
evening and maintaining residency into parts of Thursday as the
front passes overhead. WPC rainfall accumulations depict
amounts of around an inch to an inch and a half to fall within
this frontal passage, with locally higher amounts possible in
the event of a heavier shower and/or thunderstorm. A cool down
in the wake of the front takes shape for the conclusion of this
forecast period into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 545 AM Saturday...

Patchy fog will erode early in the TAF period, then VFR is
expected at all sites for the rest of the day. While an
isolated shower or storm could develop this afternoon, most of
the area should remain dry and confidence in activity occurring
at a terminal remains low enough to leave mention out of the
TAFs.

Winds become light and westerly during the day, then calm again
tonight. Some patchy fog could form and cause brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions at EKN overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A few showers/storms could impact a
terminal or two this afternoon. Extent of fog tonight may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 07/13/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through
Tuesday, with temperatures forecast to approach record highs in
the Beckley area. The record high temperatures for Saturday,
July 13 to Tuesday, July 16 are listed below for our official
climate sites, along with the current forecast values.

                   Forecast / Record High Temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Saturday, 7/13 |  Sunday, 7/14  |  Monday, 7/15  |  Tuesday, 7/16  |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW| 93 / 103 (1929)| 94 / 102 (1954)| 97 / 103 (1988)| 98 / 104 (1988) |
HTS| 93 / 104 (1914)| 96 / 105 (1954)| 98 / 104 (1936)| 98 / 102 (1988) |
CKB| 91 /  98 (1936)| 93 /  97 (1952)| 93 /  99 (1954)| 97 /  97 (1995) |
PKB| 93 /  97 (1954)| 95 / 103 (1936)| 96 / 100 (1988)| 98 / 102 (1988) |
BKW| 88 /  90 (1954)| 89 /  94 (1954)| 91 /  94 (1936)| 92 /  96 (1912) |
EKN| 90 /  92 (1993)| 90 /  95 (1954)| 92 /  96 (1995)| 95 /  99 (1988) |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JLB

CLIMATE...MEK/JLB