695
FXUS61 KRLX 131644
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1244 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Much of the area remains dry today. A more active weather
summer pattern ensues next week, with potential storm complexes
amid heat and humidity. Cold frontal passage Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Saturday...

Hot and mostly dry weather will persist the remainder of the
weekend under high pressure. A stray thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out Sunday afternoon, mainly across northern West Virginia
and southeast Ohio, as a weak upper-level shortwave tracks
across northern Ohio and Pennsylvania. Higher chances for
thunderstorms will be farther to the north across PBZ`s area.

Expect high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s this
afternoon and again Sunday afternoon across the lowlands. The
mountains can expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees. There will be a bit of a `humid` feel to the air this
weekend, but it shouldn`t be unbearable with dew points expected
to be mostly in the mid-60s. Sunday may feel a little worse
than today with `feels like temperatures` reaching the middle to
upper 90s by the afternoon. Remember to stay cool, stay
hydrated, and apply sunscreen during this long stretch of hot
weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Heat index values continue to rise into the start of the
   week, with many spots in the lowlands stretching into the
   triple digit mark.

 * A northern stream disturbance brings light rain to parts of
   the forecast area overnight Sunday into Monday.

Surface high pressure nestled over the area at the start of the
forecast period will continue to advertise not only dry weather,
but a warming pattern under a rising height pattern. An uptick
in low level moisture will be instigated by a southerly wind
shift, attracting warm Gulf moisture up into the region. This
sets the stage for the return of rising humidity and growing
concern in regards to heat indices. Apparent temperature
readings in the upper 90s will be observed by peaking heating
hours Sunday afternoon, especially from the Charleston metro
area and west into the Tri-State area.

A passing northern stream disturbance encroaches the Ohio Valley
late Sunday afternoon and may douse parts of our forecast area
with much needed rain by the evening and overnight periods.
Anticipated rainfall amounts do not look to extinguish the
drought conditions we are currently facing in this very dry
summer pattern, but will be a brief reprieve from this ongoing
dry spell for north-central West Virginia and southeast Ohio.

The new work week opens up with lingering showers as the
disturbance streams through the Great Lakes region. However, the
bigger story will continue to be the dangerous heat index values
that ramp up for Monday afternoon. Areas across the central
lowlands and along the Ohio River Valley are projected to reach
heat indices of 100-102 degrees during that time, imposing
concerns for dangerous heat impacts in the event of long
duration exposure outside. Will continue to highlight the
Monday, and even Tuesday, heat wave in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

Key Points:

 * Dangerous heat continues across the Central Appalachians on
   Tuesday, with heat indices once again extending above 100
   degrees.

 * A cold front brings beneficial rain from showers and storms
   by midweek as well as a cool down for the latter half of the
   week.

Little to no changes in the upper level pattern will sustain the
local heat wave present in the lower elevations and WV foothills
once again on Tuesday afternoon. We can once again expect heat
index values extending up into the triple digits for the vase
majority of the forecast area.

A welcome reprieve from the heat will arrive around midweek in
the form of a cold front diving down from the Upper Midwest.
This boundary will also supply the region with the best
potential for beneficial rainfall for the week, arriving Tuesday
evening and maintaining residency into parts of Thursday as the
front passes overhead. WPC rainfall accumulations depict
amounts of around an inch to an inch and a half to fall within
this frontal passage, with locally higher amounts possible in
the event of a heavier shower and/or thunderstorm. A cool down
in the wake of the front takes shape for the conclusion of this
forecast period into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

Quiet weather will continue today under mostly sunny skies and
light to calm wind. The combination of clear skies and calm
wind overnight will lead to the development of patchy dense fog
in a few of the terminals. IFR restrictions are expected at KEKN
and KCRW between 06Z and 12Z Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog overnight may vary from the
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 315 AM Saturday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through
Tuesday, with temperatures forecast to approach record highs in
the Beckley area. The record high temperatures for Saturday,
July 13 to Tuesday, July 16 are listed below for our official
climate sites, along with the current forecast values.

                   Forecast / Record High Temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Saturday, 7/13 |  Sunday, 7/14  |  Monday, 7/15  |  Tuesday, 7/16  |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRW| 93 / 103 (1929)| 94 / 102 (1954)| 97 / 103 (1988)| 98 / 104 (1988) |
HTS| 93 / 104 (1914)| 96 / 105 (1954)| 98 / 104 (1936)| 98 / 102 (1988) |
CKB| 91 /  98 (1936)| 93 /  97 (1952)| 93 /  99 (1954)| 97 /  97 (1995) |
PKB| 93 /  97 (1954)| 95 / 103 (1936)| 96 / 100 (1988)| 98 / 102 (1988) |
BKW| 88 /  90 (1954)| 89 /  94 (1954)| 91 /  94 (1936)| 92 /  96 (1912) |
EKN| 90 /  92 (1993)| 90 /  95 (1954)| 92 /  96 (1995)| 95 /  99 (1988) |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JMC

CLIMATE...MEK/JLB