245
FXUS61 KRLX 140033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
833 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity build into next week with increasing chances
of showers and storms. A cold front on Wednesday will bring
needed rainfall and finally break the heat.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 445PM Saturday...

Made minor modifications to PoPs, cloud cover, and temperatures
through this evening to represent the latest trends. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track, with highly isolated showers or storms
possible through this evening, primarily across our northern
forecast zones or in the mountains.

As of 1240 PM Saturday...

Hot and mostly dry weather will persist the remainder of the
weekend under high pressure. A stray thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out Sunday afternoon, mainly across northern West Virginia
and southeast Ohio, as a weak upper-level shortwave tracks
across northern Ohio and Pennsylvania. Higher chances for
thunderstorms will be farther to the north across PBZ`s area.

Expect high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s this
afternoon and again Sunday afternoon across the lowlands. The
mountains can expect highs in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees. There will be a bit of a `humid` feel to the air this
weekend, but it shouldn`t be unbearable with dew points expected
to be mostly in the mid-60s. Sunday may feel a little worse
than today with `feels like temperatures` reaching the middle to
upper 90s by the afternoon. Remember to stay cool, stay
hydrated, and apply sunscreen during this long stretch of hot
weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

The region will see some influence from a trailing cold front with
an area of surface pressure transiting south the James Bay Sunday
night, this could help to spark a couple showers or thunderstorms
across the north during the late evening and overnight. Another
disturbance approaching Monday night could yield a better chance of
thunderstorms across the north. This second wave could yield a
better chance for some potentially strong to severe convection with
damaging wind gusts as the primary threat, but better chances
for severe storms may remain just north of our service area.

Both of these systems, coupled with westward bulging Bermuda
high pressure will yield light southwesterly flow for much of
the rest of the service area yielding at least some warm and
most advection. A well mixed boundary layer, suppressed
evapotranspiration due to recent dryness and only weak south-
southwesterly moisture advection point toward central guidance
being slightly too high on dew points and slightly too low on
temperatures through Monday and Tuesday. Net result will yield
heat indices slightly lower than advertised by guidance, but
still likely exceeding heat advisory criteria of 100 degrees on
both days over much of the lower elevations. Heat highlights
will likely be necessary for both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

Cold frontal passage is expected during the day Wednesday bringing
much needed rainfall to the region. While deep warm cloud depths and
moisture laden profiles are in place with precipitable water values
up near 1.8 inches, basin totals don`t look like they will put much
of a dent in recent dryness. Localized higher amounts in slow moving
or repetitive thunderstorms could yield very localized high water
issues, but rainfall is expected to remain generally beneficial. The
bigger story will be finally seeing more than a 2 day break (first
time since June 15th in Charleston) in 90+ degree high temperatures
across the lowlands with forecast highs in the 80s through the
balance of the forecast. Diurnally driven isolated pop-up convection
will remain possible through the balance of the week, but generally
weak instability should temper any threat for stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 830 PM Saturday...

Isolated showers are possible around EKN over the next hour
with dry weather expected afterwards. Patchy valley fog is
expected tonight, primarily across the deeper river valleys.
Restrictions due to fog are expected at EKN and could
potentially occur at CRW, HTS, and PKB near dawn. Any fog that
does develop will lift/dissipate by ~1230Z Sunday. This gives
way to a FEW/SCT Cu field late Sunday morning and afternoon,
with the potential for a highly isolated shower or storm.

Light and variable or calm surface flow is expected tonight.
Light WSW surface flow will develop on Sunday. Occasional
breezes of 15 to 20 knots are possible during the afternoon and
evening.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight, high otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog overnight may vary from the
forecast. Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions could occur in isolated
showers or storms Sunday afternoon/evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 07/14/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 150 PM Saturday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through
Tuesday. The record high temperatures for Sunday, July 14
to Tuesday, July 16 are listed below for our official climate
sites, along with the current forecast values.

           Forecast / Record High Temperatures
--------------------------------------------------------
      Sunday, 7/14  |  Monday, 7/15  |  Tuesday, 7/16  |
--------------------------------------------------------
CRW| 95 / 102 (1954)| 97 / 103 (1988)| 99 / 104 (1988) |
HTS| 96 / 105 (1954)| 99 / 104 (1936)|100 / 102 (1988) |
CKB| 93 /  97 (1952)| 94 /  99 (1954)| 96 /  97 (1995) |
PKB| 95 / 103 (1936)| 97 / 100 (1988)| 98 / 102 (1988) |
BKW| 89 /  94 (1954)| 91 /  94 (1936)| 92 /  96 (1912) |
EKN| 91 /  95 (1954)| 92 /  96 (1995)| 95 /  99 (1988) |
--------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/GW/JMC/LS
NEAR TERM...GW/JMC/LS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GW/LS
CLIMATE...JP