166
FXUS61 KRLX 200236
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1036 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mostly dry today. Rain chances along and southeast of
the Ohio River for Saturday. Drier for most Sunday, then looking
unsettled next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1025 PM Friday...

No changes were needed to the forecast as it remains on track.

As of 500 PM Friday...

The general forecast remains in tact. Only had to update
dewpoints to align them better with current observations and
trends. Nudged wind slightly lower as the valleys should
decouple tonight. The latest ensemble guidance was blended with
the forecast to add or remove categorical POPs and to account
for any new dramatic changes that may have occurred.

As of 154 PM Friday...

Any afternoon showers and storms that manage to develop over the
mountains this afternoon will dissipate around sunset. A broad
surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes
and the OH valley tonight providing mostly dry weather. However,
a deepening trough across central and southern US will lift a
shortwave over the area later tonight. This shortwave, and its
associated vorticity cluster will ride along a frontal boundary
just east of the Appalachians, to enhance convection, more
likely over the mountains late overnight tonight into Saturday
morning. The closer the front gets to our eastern mountains,
the further west shower and storms could develop over our CWA
Saturday afternoon and evening. Therefore, have chance PoPs
tonight, becoming likely Saturday afternoon and evening over the
eastern mountains.

Tonight, temperatures will generally be from the low to mid 60s. A
dewpoint gradient will keep dewpoints in the mid 60s east of the OH
River, but in the mid 50s west of the OH River.

For Saturday, near normal afternoon temperatures expected, generally
in the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1155 AM Friday...

Southwesterly flow will increase across the area Sunday into Monday
in response to gradually deepening trough across the midwest. A
gradual uptick in the temperatures and humidity, along with several
waves moving through the flow and daytime heating will keep the
weather unsettled. The bulk of the activity Sunday generally looks
to remain south and east of the Ohio River, with increased areal
coverage on Monday. Overall flow will be rather light, and storms
will contain brief heavy downpours. Severe is not anticipated at
this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1155 AM Friday...

Increasingly unsettled conditions look to take hold next week as
southwesterly flow continues to remain in place, and moisture
continues to surge northward into the region. Shortwaves moving
through the flow at times, combined with the effects of diurnal
heating will keep a mention of shower and storm chances in the
forecast for the entire extended area wide. Any storms will contain
heavy downpours, particularly as we get into the middle of next week
and PW values surge above 2 inches again. The good news is despite
the increasing humidity, heat indices don`t look to get too out of
control as convection/cloud cover should keep a lid on temperatures
getting too warm.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 715 PM Friday...

VFR going into tonight with valley fog development on the table
for EKN and possibly CRW. The rest of the sites should have
enough surface flow to stay out of it. Hi-res models struggle
with anything developing overnight as far as rain, but there
should be some low clouds along the mountain sites, however
nothing in the way of widespread MVFR until Saturday afternoon
when rain chances rise across BKW along with lower CIGs (MVFR).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CRW may fog more than anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 07/20/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible along the mountains Sunday under
showers and low stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JZ