783
FXUS61 KRLX 152128
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
528 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot through Tuesday with the chance for storms. A cold front on
Wednesday brings much needed rainfall and finally breaks the
heat. Isolated t-storms possible this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 510 PM Monday...

A dry lower atmosphere for this time of year has allowed for
temperatures this afternoon/evening to exceed central guidance,
with mid to upper 90s across much of the lowlands at present.
Given such, did tweak temperatures a couple degrees higher
area-wide this evening. Convection has initiated northwest of
the area over the past couple of hours, and is gradually
approaching our SE OH zones. Overall, a general weakening trend
is expected given a less favorable airmass the further S/E in
direction one goes. Nevertheless, isolated strong to severe
storms across SE OH into northern WV do remain possible this
evening, with the main hazards being strong wind gusts, hail,
and heavy downpours. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 140 PM Monday...

Key Points:

* Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and again this evening
  could produce localized strong to damaging wind gusts.

* Another hot day is expected Tuesday with heat index values
  approaching 100 degrees.

* Uncertainty remains with convective initiation on Tuesday, but
  likely driven by MCV from decaying morning activity. Primary
  threat with storms will be damaging wind gusts.

Clouds/isolated rain showers associated with a mesoscale convective
vortex will continue to brush by our northern counties through early
this afternoon, with largely just diurnal cumulus blossoming
elsewhere through the afternoon. This has allowed for full insolation
with surface temperatures warming in the mid to upper 90s across
much of the lower elevations. While surface dew points may mix down
into the mid 60s through late this afternoon, this should still
support heat index values in the vicinity of 100 degrees for
much of the lower elevations and will continue with existing
heat advisories for this afternoon into the evening.

While forecast profiles are only minimally capped at best, the lack
of well defined forcing will likely limit overall convective
coverage this afternoon, especially across the northwest in
subsidence in the wake of the departing MCV. Should anything manage
to get going, outflow driven convective initiation would support
more substantial coverage as storms propagate however. With
relatively weak shear, around 20KTs and 20 to 25 degree surface dew
point spreads, the primary threat with any activity would be locally
damaging wind gusts. Another weak shortwave arriving toward mid/late
evening may be able to get some elevated activity established across
the north, and will code up some at least chance PoPs for this
possibility, although confidence is on the lower side.

Remnants of a decaying mesoscale convective complex dropping out of
the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday morning could place convective debris
and/or outflows across the area during early heating Tuesday,
shower/thunderstorm activity is largely expected to dissipate before
it arrives in our area however.

With at least some uncertainly as to convective debris
coverage/remnant outflow position heading into Tuesday will defer
the decision for another day of heat advisories to the midnight
shift, but this does look increasingly likely, especially across the
southern 2/3rd of the lower elevations.

Considerable uncertainty remains as to convective evolution on
Tuesday, but it seems plausible that convective initiation will be a
focused by a remnant MCV  in the afternoon from the aforementioned
complex approaching our western counties toward daybreak. The main
threat with any storms will be damaging wind gusts given ~20F
surface dew point depressions. Wouldn`t be out of the question to
get some hail out of storm scale interaction, but weaker shear and
freezing levels near 15kft will limit overall hail risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* A cold front can bring anywhere from 1.00-1.50" of much needed
  rain Wednesday, but isolated flooding will still be possible
  in streets and poor-drainage areas.

A cold front will be crossing the region Wednesday, bringing much
needed rainfall. This is not likely to be a drought-busting rain,
but with 1.00-1.50" expected across the region, it will still be
beneficial. Because of how dry things have been as of late, the
threat for flooding shouldn`t be a widespread concern. However,
isolated street and poor-drainage flooding will still be possible,
especially with any training thunderstorms.

Severe weather doesn`t appear likely Wednesday. Clouds and rain
along the frontal boundary will prevent much destabilization. The
SPC currently only has our area outlooked in a general thunder risk.

The front will also bring a change to much cooler conditions
areawide. High temperatures will only reach the lower to middle 80s
Wednesday afternoon, thanks to widespread clouds and showers. The
relief from the excessive heat will certainly be welcome.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1151 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* Behind the front will be much cooler and more comfortable
  weather late this week and into this weekend.

High pressure will gradually press southward from the Great Lakes
behind the front Thursday and Friday. This should bring clearing
skies and a refreshing northerly breeze across the area, with high
temperatures topping out in the lower-to-middle 60s each day. The
aforementioned front will stall out over the Carolinas into this
weekend. A few mid-level impulses from the south may trigger
isolated showers and thunderstorms across the mountains late this
week and into this weekend, but the best chance of rain will be
southeast of our coverage area, in the vicinity of the stalled
front.

By early next week, the front may slide to the north and back closer
to our area, but the models show a lot of uncertainty at this time.
Just keep in mind that the potential for more widespread rain may
return again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 PM Monday...

Primarily diurnal cumulus will affect all terminals through this
afternoon with an isolated thunderstorm also possible. Given
expected low coverage and low confidence of thunder affecting any
given terminal, will leave VCTS/TSRA out of the TAFs for now.

A shortwave approaching the region this evening could yield slightly
better chances of thunder across the north, and will code up some
VCTS for the northern terminals for a few hours heading into the
overnight. Outside of any convective debris, should see just some
thin high clouds overnight.

A decaying convective complex coming out of the Midwest could yield
some showers approaching by Tuesday morning, although this activity
is expected to weaken/dissipate as it approaches.

Winds generally southwesterly 6-10KTs with some occasional higher
gusts through the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief restrictions could occur in isolated
showers or storms this afternoon/evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 150 PM Monday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through
Tuesday. The record high temperatures for Monday, July 15
and Tuesday, July 16 are listed below for our official
climate sites, along with the current forecast values.

   Forecast / Record High Temperatures
----------------------------------------
       Monday, 7/15  |  Tuesday, 7/16  |
----------------------------------------
CRW| 97 / 103 (1988) | 97 / 104 (1988) |
HTS| 96 / 104 (1936) | 96 / 102 (1988) |
CKB| 95 / 99  (1954) | 93 / 97  (1995) |
PKB| 96 / 100 (1988) | 91 / 102 (1988) |
BKW| 91 / 94  (1936) | 90 / 96  (1912) |
EKN| 91 / 96  (1995) | 91 / 99  (1988) |
----------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP
CLIMATE...JP