143
FXUS61 KRLX 201243
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
843 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances along and southeast of the Ohio River today. Drier
for most of the area on Sunday with showers and thunderstorms
in the southern half of the area. Looking unsettled next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 845 AM Saturday...

Added pops into NE KY zones to reflect current radar trends.
Otherwise, no changes.

As of 245 AM Saturday...

A few showers keep threatening our southern counties from RNK`s
CWA, but thus far haven`t had much success making it over the
mountains. However, as we go through the rest of the night and
into the daylight hours, expect the shower potential to spread
gradually northward along the higher terrain, and then NW from
the mountains into lower elevations. Most guidance would keep
all precip along and southeast of the Ohio Valley, shutting our
SE Ohio counties out of rainfall today, and the forecast
reflects this consensus. Thunderstorms will also be possible
during the afternoon and early evening hours, as much of the
area could have 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE. That said, effective bulk
shear looks like it will struggle to get much above 20kts, so no
organized or severe weather is expected. And PW values of
1.5-1.75 are possible, but storm motion vectors seem likely to
be in the 20-30kt range, so flooding is also not seen as a
realistic concern at this point. Shower chances quickly drop
off after sunset as upper ridging and a weak trough or front
push across the area.

Highs will generally be around normal for mid-July, with 80s in
lower elevations, and mid-60s to mid-70s in the mountains. The
humidity will be noticeably higher than yesterday, especially
south and east of the Ohio River, where we could see dew points
creeping up towards 70 degrees in spots once again. As a result,
and despite the expectation for some clearing skies and calmer
winds, lows tonight are likely to be in the low to mid-60s for
most, with some 50s in the northern mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 AM Saturday...

High pressure will be in control for about half of the area Sunday.
The chance for afternoon showers and storms will remain across the
mountains and coalfields of West Virginia; more likely chances will
exist across southwest Virginia as a boundary approaches from the
south later in the afternoon. Severe weather is not expected at
this time, but will have to watch heavy downpours associated
with any activity.

Flow will be stagnant both days, though southwesterly flow will
be taking over late Sunday through Monday, allowing for heat
and humidity to return to the area. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to around 90 in the lowlands, with the mountains
ranging between the mid 70s and mid 80s.

For Monday, upper-level trough deepening over the central and
southern CONUS moves overhead as the nearly stationary boundary
continues to move up from the south and over our area. Chance PoPs
will increase from south to north throughout the morning, becoming
likely for most by afternoon as showers and thunderstorms increase
in coverage. Once again, severe weather is not anticipated at this
time and will have to keep an eye on the heavy downpours.
Temperatures look to be a few degrees less warm Monday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 309 AM Saturday...

Active weather looks to be in the cards through the long-term period
as a pesky stationary boundary and upper-level trough cling to the
area. Chances for diurnal showers and storms will stick around
through the week as a result. Precipitable water values are
forecasted to be around or above 2.00" inches with a sultry
atmosphere.

Depending on positioning of the stationary boundary,
temperatures will gradually moderate by midweek, remaining about
4-7 degrees below normal with abundant moisture around.
Afterwards, models start to diverge in the overall pattern with
a possible cold front Friday into Saturday and a warming trend
in place to close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 700 AM Saturday...

EKN has been flirting with MVFR vsby the past hour or two, but
aside from brief hints of 4SM, it has stayed mostly VFR. Did
tempo in MVFR vsby for the first hour to account for some
lingering fog potential. Otherwise, VFR prevailing conditions
are expected today and into this evening, with TEMPO groups for
thunderstorm potential noted for all except HTS and PKB. The 18z
TAFs may be able to zero in on some tighter time frames for
thunderstorm potential at some terminals, but as of now, the
confidence wasn`t there for much more than a relatively broad
brush approach.

With general clearing and calming winds noted for a good
portion of tonight, it is likely that any valley spot that gets
rain today will fog tonight. For now, did bring some spots down
to IFR vsby as a signal of fog potential.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread shower/storm activity this
afternoon could lead to more common category reductions. Fog
timing and coverage tonight may differ from the forecast, and
will likely be focused in valley locations that get rain today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible each afternoon and evening for
Monday through Wednesday in any heavier thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...FK/SL
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...FK