156
FXUS61 KRLX 160659
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
259 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
One more hot day today with the chance for storms. A cold front
on Wednesday brings much needed rainfall and finally breaks the
heat. Isolated t-storms possible this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Early morning radar trends reflect a similar setup to yesterday,
where an overnight convective complex is attempting an eastward
progression through the Ohio Valley, and weakening in the
process. This will bode monitoring towards daybreak, as outflow
boundaries could ignite new development along the line and bring
a morning round of showers and storms to the western flank of
the forecast area. Otherwise, anvil blow off from this decaying
MCS will blanket the area throughout the predawn hours, and
fester overhead today.

A digging upper-level trough will drift southward into the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley throughout the day, providing leverage
for renewed convection out ahead of a nearing cold front. Storms
will reignite back in Ohio around midday and aim for the
Central Appalachians late in the afternoon and into the evening.
Uncertainty also exists whether the decaying MCS from this
morning will also serve as a focus for additional storms as it
tracks through the northeast WV mountains. Primary concern with
healthier storms will be damaging wind gusts.

The cold front will enter the lower Ohio Valley late tonight,
maintaining showers and weakening convection through the end of
the valid near term period. Lackluster steering flow aloft will
encourage a slow progression of rain overnight. However, given
how dry the region has been recently, this enriching rainfall
will be welcoming, and should not pose a risk for flooding
heading into early Wednesday morning.

Heat will once again be a main topic point for today`s forecast,
but more so due to the relief that is close on the horizon with
the incoming cold front. Temperatures this afternoon will be
more dependent upon satellite and convective trends from
overnight activity, which yields a lesser chance for heat
indices reaching criteria as widespread in areas as they did on
Monday. This imposes more of a localized risk for heat index
values stretching into the low 100s today, focused more around
the Charleston metro area and down into Lincoln/Boone Counties,
as well as the Tri-State area of Ohio and Kentucky. Opting to
hold off on an advisory for today due to the uncertainty of
reaching criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* A cold front can bring anywhere from 1.00-1.50" of much needed
  rain Wednesday, but isolated flooding will still be possible
  in streets and poor-drainage areas.

A cold front will be crossing the region Wednesday, bringing much
needed rainfall. This is not likely to be a drought-busting rain,
but with 1.00-1.50" expected across the region, it will still be
beneficial. Because of how dry things have been as of late, the
threat for flooding shouldn`t be a widespread concern. However,
isolated street and poor-drainage flooding will still be possible,
especially with any training thunderstorms.

Severe weather doesn`t appear likely Wednesday. Clouds and rain
along the frontal boundary will prevent much destabilization. The
SPC currently only has our area outlooked in a general thunder risk.

The front will also bring a change to much cooler conditions
areawide. High temperatures will only reach the lower to middle 80s
Wednesday afternoon, thanks to widespread clouds and showers. The
relief from the excessive heat will certainly be welcome.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1151 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* Behind the front will be much cooler and more comfortable
  weather late this week and into this weekend.

High pressure will gradually press southward from the Great Lakes
behind the front Thursday and Friday. This should bring clearing
skies and a refreshing northerly breeze across the area, with high
temperatures topping out in the lower-to-middle 60s each day. The
aforementioned front will stall out over the Carolinas into this
weekend. A few mid-level impulses from the south may trigger
isolated showers and thunderstorms across the mountains late this
week and into this weekend, but the best chance of rain will be
southeast of our coverage area, in the vicinity of the stalled
front.

By early next week, the front may slide to the north and back closer
to our area, but the models show a lot of uncertainty at this time.
Just keep in mind that the potential for more widespread rain may
return again early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Another weakening MCS to our west starts off the forecast
period, with generally quieter weather still residing over our
airspace. High cirrus streaming in as blow off from early
morning storms, coupled with breezy low level flow, should help
fend off any fog formation this morning.

Afternoon storms aim for the Ohio River Valley once again today
as a cold front drifts closer to the region. VCTS was included
at most sites after 18Z, with strong signals for more widespread
and persistent storms well into the evening and overnight
hours. MVFR cigs were on the horizon for this valid TAF period,
encroaching on our western terminals early Wednesday morning
with the arrival of the front.

Outside of wind gusts associated with strong to possibly severe
storms this afternoon and evening, surface winds will become
breezier later today out of the southwest.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, medium Tuesday w/ showers/storms.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible
later today within showers and thunderstorms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/16/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

A prolonged heat wave continues across the region through
Tuesday. The record high temperatures for Tuesday, July 16 are
listed below for our official climate sites, along with the
current forecast values.

Forecast / Record Highs
-----------------------
      Tuesday, 7/16   |
-----------------------
CRW | 95 / 104 (1988) |
HTS | 94 / 102 (1988) |
CKB | 92 /  97 (1995) |
PKB | 90 / 102 (1988) |
BKW | 90 /  96 (1912) |
EKN | 90 /  99 (1988) |
-----------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...MEK

CLIMATE...MEK